arXiv:2603.05301cs.AI2026-03

解决传感器数据缺失下的时空预测问题,提升不完整观测下的预测精度。

Uniform Inductive Spatio-Temporal Kriging

  • 引入可靠性引导信号调节,动态加权可靠观测值
  • 在真实数据集上显著提升多种克里金模型的预测性能
  • 适合处理故障或维护导致的数据块缺失场景

诱导式时空克里金法从已观测传感器推断未观测位置的信号,但现实观测常因故障、中断或维护导致不完整且呈块状缺失。常见的先插补再克里金流程存在目标错配:观测点重建效果好并不等于下游克里金表现优,且数值依赖性插补偏差会传播至未观测节点。本文提出UniSTOK,一种可即插即用的不完整观测下诱导式时空克里金框架。首先引入可靠性引导信号调节(RSR),基于时间连续性和空间支持度估计逐项可靠性,并据此调节输入信号,使可靠观测受重视,长间隙或弱支持条目被抑制。进一步提出残差偏差校准(RBC),在主预测器收敛后估计值条件化残差原型,并学习上下文修正幅度,自适应校正最终克里金预测中的系统性高估或低估。在多个真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,UniSTOK能持续改进多种克里金基线模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Inductive spatio-temporal kriging infers signals at unobserved locations from observed sensors, but real-world observations are often incomplete and exhibit block-wise missingness caused by failures, interruptions, or maintenance. A common impute-then-krige pipeline suffers from objective mismatch: better reconstruction on observed sensors does not necessarily improve downstream kriging, and value-dependent imputation bias can be propagated to unobserved nodes. We propose UniSTOK, a plug-and-play framework for inductive spatio-temporal kriging under incomplete observations. We first introduce Reliability-guided Signal Regulation (RSR), which estimates entry-wise reliability from temporal continuity and spatial support, and uses it to regulate the input signals so that reliable observations are emphasized while long-gap or weakly supported entries are suppressed before spatial propagation. We further introduce Residual Bias Calibration (RBC), which estimates value-conditioned residual prototypes after the main predictor converges and learns context-correction amplitudes to adaptively calibrate systematic over- or under-estimation in final kriging predictions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that UniSTOK consistently improves multiple kriging backbones.

时空建模数据缺失克里金法可靠性评估

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