用生成式AI造数据做统计推断,关键在搞清何时可用、如何用。
Harnessing Synthetic Data from Generative AI for Statistical Inference
- 从统计角度梳理生成式AI造数据的适用条件与假设
- 指出模型误设、不确定性低估等常见陷阱
- 提出合理使用合成数据的框架与实用建议
生成式AI的兴起极大拓展了合成数据在科学、产业和政策领域的应用。尽管这为数据分析带来新可能,但也引发根本性统计问题:合成数据在何种条件下可被有效、可靠且合乎原则地用于推断与预测?本文从统计视角回顾合成数据生成与应用现状,旨在明确其支持下游发现与推断的前提假设。我们梳理了现代主流生成模型类别、应用场景及其优势,同时揭示其局限与典型失效模式。此外,我们分析了将合成数据当作真实观测替代品时的常见误区,包括模型误设带来的偏差、不确定性被弱化,以及泛化困难等问题。基于上述洞见,我们讨论了合成数据的合乎原则使用框架。最后,给出实践建议、开放问题与警示,以指导方法开发者与应用研究者。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The emergence of generative AI models has dramatically expanded the availability and use of synthetic data across scientific, industrial, and policy domains. While these developments open new possibilities for data analysis, they also raise fundamental statistical questions about when synthetic data can be used in a valid, reliable, and principled manner. This paper reviews the current landscape of synthetic data generation and use from a statistical perspective, with the goal of clarifying the assumptions under which synthetic data can meaningfully support downstream discovery, inference, and prediction. We survey major classes of modern generative models, their intended use cases, and the benefits they offer, while also highlighting their limitations and characteristic failure modes. We additionally examine common pitfalls that arise when synthetic data are treated as surrogates for real observations, including biases from model misspecification, attenuated uncertainty, and difficulties in generalization. Building on these insights, we discuss emerging frameworks for the principled use of synthetic data. We conclude with practical recommendations, open problems, and cautions intended to guide both method developers and applied researchers.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。