arXiv:2603.05483cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

首个生存分析中异质治疗效应评估基准,统一评测方法可靠性

SurvHTE-Bench: A Benchmark for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation in Survival Analysis

  • 构建三类数据集:合成、半合成与真实世界数据,覆盖多种因果假设
  • 首次在多场景下系统对比生存分析中异质治疗效应方法性能
  • 适合精准医疗与因果推断研究者使用,支持公平可复现评估

从右删失生存数据中估计异质治疗效应(HTE)在精准医学和个性化政策制定等高风险应用中至关重要。然而,由于删失、未观测反事实及复杂的识别假设,生存分析中的HTE估计面临独特挑战。尽管近期已有因果生存森林、生存元学习器和结果插补等方法进展,评估实践仍零散不一致。本文提出SurvHTE-Bench,首个针对删失结果的异质治疗效应评估基准。该基准包含三类数据:(i) 具有已知真实值的模块化合成数据集,系统变化因果假设与生存动态;(ii) 结合真实协变量与模拟处理/结果的半合成数据集;(iii) 来自双胞胎研究(具已知真实值)和艾滋病临床试验的真实数据集。在合成、半合成与真实世界设置中,我们首次在多样化条件与现实假设违背下对生存HTE方法进行严格比较。SurvHTE-Bench为因果生存方法的公平、可复现与可扩展评估奠定基础。数据与代码见:https://github.com/Shahriarnz14/SurvHTE-Bench。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from right-censored survival data is critical in high-stakes applications such as precision medicine and individualized policy-making. Yet, the survival analysis setting poses unique challenges for HTE estimation due to censoring, unobserved counterfactuals, and complex identification assumptions. Despite recent advances, from Causal Survival Forests to survival meta-learners and outcome imputation approaches, evaluation practices remain fragmented and inconsistent. We introduce SurvHTE-Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark for HTE estimation with censored outcomes. The benchmark spans (i) a modular suite of synthetic datasets with known ground truth, systematically varying causal assumptions and survival dynamics, (ii) semi-synthetic datasets that pair real-world covariates with simulated treatments and outcomes, and (iii) real-world datasets from a twin study (with known ground truth) and from an HIV clinical trial. Across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world settings, we provide the first rigorous comparison of survival HTE methods under diverse conditions and realistic assumption violations. SurvHTE-Bench establishes a foundation for fair, reproducible, and extensible evaluation of causal survival methods. The data and code of our benchmark are available at: https://github.com/Shahriarnz14/SurvHTE-Bench .

生存分析因果推断异质效应基准测试

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