arXiv:2603.06231cs.CVcs.AI2026-03

让自动驾驶预测模型适应长短不一的观测数据,提升短时观测下的轨迹预测准确率。

TaPD: Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation for Observation-Adaptive Trajectory Forecasting in Autonomous Driving

  • 用渐进式知识蒸馏,让短时观测也能学得长时运动模式。
  • 在极短观测下通过回填历史片段,增强模型上下文理解能力。
  • 可直接插入现有模型中提升性能,适合真实复杂驾驶场景使用。

轨迹预测对自动驾驶至关重要,使车辆能预判周围目标运动以支持安全规划。然而,现有方法多假设历史观测长度固定,在真实场景中因遮挡或传感范围限制导致观测变短时,性能显著下降。本文提出统一的TaPD(时间自适应渐进式蒸馏)框架,用于处理不同长度的历史观测。TaPD包含两个协同模块:观察自适应预测器(OAF)用于未来轨迹预测,时间回填模块(TBM)用于显式重建过去轨迹。OAF基于渐进式知识蒸馏(PKD),通过分层特征回归将长时“教师”模型的运动模式知识迁移到短时“学生”模型,使短观测也能恢复更丰富的运动上下文。引入余弦退火蒸馏权重机制,平衡预测监督与特征对齐,提升优化稳定性和跨长度一致性。对于极短历史,TBM基于场景演化条件回填缺失的历史段,生成富含上下文的轨迹,强化PKD并改进预测。采用解耦预训练-回填-微调协议,保留真实运动先验的同时适应回填输入。在Argoverse 1和Argoverse 2上的大量实验表明,TaPD在所有观测长度下均优于强基线,尤其在极短输入下提升显著,并能以即插即用方式提升其他模型(如HiVT)性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Trajectory prediction is essential for autonomous driving, enabling vehicles to anticipate the motion of surrounding agents to support safe planning. However, most existing predictors assume fixed-length histories and suffer substantial performance degradation when observations are variable or extremely short in real-world settings (e.g., due to occlusion or a limited sensing range). We propose TaPD (Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation), a unified plug-and-play framework for observation-adaptive trajectory forecasting under variable history lengths. TaPD comprises two cooperative modules: an Observation-Adaptive Forecaster (OAF) for future prediction and a Temporal Backfilling Module (TBM) for explicit reconstruction of the past. OAF is built on progressive knowledge distillation (PKD), which transfers motion pattern knowledge from long-horizon "teachers" to short-horizon "students" via hierarchical feature regression, enabling short observations to recover richer motion context. We further introduce a cosine-annealed distillation weighting scheme to balance forecasting supervision and feature alignment, improving optimization stability and cross-length consistency. For extremely short histories where implicit alignment is insufficient, TBM backfills missing historical segments conditioned on scene evolution, producing context-rich trajectories that strengthen PKD and thereby improve OAF. We employ a decoupled pretrain-reconstruct-finetune protocol to preserve real-motion priors while adapting to backfilled inputs. Extensive experiments on Argoverse 1 and Argoverse 2 show that TaPD consistently outperforms strong baselines across all observation lengths, delivers especially large gains under very short inputs, and improves other predictors (e.g., HiVT) in a plug-and-play manner. Code will be available at https://github.com/zhouhao94/TaPD.

轨迹预测自动驾驶知识蒸馏自适应

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