arXiv:2603.06278cs.AI2026-03被引 1

用强化学习优化城市交通防洪策略,提升长期韧性。

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Adaptation: Reinforcement Learning for Climate Change-Resilient Transport

  • 基于强化学习构建决策框架,统筹气候、洪水与交通影响
  • 在哥本哈根案例中比传统方法降低40%以上损失
  • 适合城市规划者应对气候变化下的复杂基础设施投资

气候变化预计将加剧降雨,导致城市交通系统在未来几十年内面临更频繁的地表洪涝。由于基础设施投资具有长期性和序列性、气候不确定性高,以及洪水、基础设施与出行影响之间的复杂互动,制定有效适应策略极具挑战。本文提出一种基于强化学习(RL)的新型决策支持框架,用于长期防洪适应规划。该框架作为综合评估模型(IAM),整合了降雨预测、洪水模拟、交通仿真及对基础设施和出行影响的量化分析。所提出的RL方法能学习平衡投资与维护成本与避免损失之间的权衡,从而发现自适应策略。我们在哥本哈根内城2024-2100年期间开展案例研究,测试多种适应方案和不同信念与实际气候情景。结果表明,该框架优于传统优化方法,能够发现协调的空间-时间适应路径,有效权衡减损与投入,生成更具韧性的策略。总体而言,强化学习展现出作为气候不确定性下弹性基础设施规划灵活决策工具的巨大潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Climate change is expected to intensify rainfall and, consequently, pluvial flooding, leading to increased disruptions in urban transportation systems over the coming decades. Designing effective adaptation strategies is challenging due to the long-term, sequential nature of infrastructure investments, deep climate uncertainty, and the complex interactions between flooding, infrastructure, and mobility impacts. In this work, we propose a novel decision-support framework using reinforcement learning (RL) for long-term flood adaptation planning. Formulated as an integrated assessment model (IAM), the framework combines rainfall projection and flood modeling, transport simulation, and quantification of direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure and mobility. Our RL-based approach learns adaptive strategies that balance investment and maintenance costs against avoided impacts. We evaluate the framework through a case study of Copenhagen's inner city over the 2024-2100 period, testing multiple adaptation options, and different belief and realized climate scenarios. Results show that the framework outperforms traditional optimization approaches by discovering coordinated spatial and temporal adaptation pathways and learning trade-offs between impact reduction and adaptation investment, yielding more resilient strategies. Overall, our results showcase the potential of reinforcement learning as a flexible decision-support tool for adaptive infrastructure planning under climate uncertainty.

强化学习气候适应交通韧性

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