用AI模型修正飓风模拟偏差,实现更快速精准的沿海洪水预测。
HURRI-GAN: A Novel Approach for Hurricane Bias-Correction Beyond Gauge Stations using Generative Adversarial Networks
- 基于TimeGAN生成对抗网络,对物理模型输出进行偏差修正。
- 在远离水位站的位置仍能准确生成偏差校正值,RMSE低。
- 适合应急响应与高时效性气象预测场景使用。
美国东海岸和南部沿海地区常受严重风暴影响,造成大量人员伤亡与财产损失。准确预测飓风引发的风暴潮和风力影响对及时疏散等应对措施至关重要。尽管如ADCIRC这样的物理模拟模型在网格分辨率提升后预测精度不断提高,但其高分辨率计算耗时长,难以满足应急响应的近实时需求。本文提出HURRI-GAN,一种基于时间序列生成对抗网络(TimeGAN)的AI增强方法,通过修正物理模型的系统性偏差,可在不降低预测精度的前提下减少所需网格规模与运行时间。首次实现了对水位站位置之外区域的偏差校正外推。结果表明,该方法能在目标位置准确生成偏差修正值,且均方根误差(RMSE)低,有效提升了多数测试水位站的预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The coastal regions of the eastern and southern United States are impacted by severe storm events, leading to significant loss of life and properties. Accurately forecasting storm surge and wind impacts from hurricanes is essential for mitigating some of the impacts, e.g., timely preparation of evacuations and other countermeasures. Physical simulation models like the ADCIRC hydrodynamics model, which run on high-performance computing resources, are sophisticated tools that produce increasingly accurate forecasts as the resolution of the computational meshes improves. However, a major drawback of these models is the significant time required to generate results at very high resolutions, which may not meet the near real-time demands of emergency responders. The presented work introduces HURRI-GAN, a novel AI-driven approach that augments the results produced by physical simulation models using time series generative adversarial networks (TimeGAN) to compensate for systemic errors of the physical model, thus reducing the necessary mesh size and runtime without loss in forecasting accuracy. We present first results in extrapolating model bias corrections for the spatial regions beyond the positions of the water level gauge stations. The presented results show that our methodology can accurately generate bias corrections at target locations spatially beyond gauge stations locations. The model's performance, as indicated by low root mean squared error (RMSE) values, highlights its capability to generate accurate extrapolated data. Applying the corrections generated by HURRI-GAN on the ADCIRC modeled water levels resulted in improving the overall prediction on the majority of the testing gauge stations.
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