arXiv:2603.06671cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

构建安全的集成学习框架,精准识别企业系统中的财务风险。

ERP-RiskBench: Leakage-Safe Ensemble Learning for Financial Risk

  • 采用嵌套交叉验证与时间/分组分割,杜绝数据泄露。
  • 集成模型在多数据集上检测效果最优,性能超越线性与深度模型。
  • 揭示采购三单匹配异常是最关键的风险信号,适合审计与风控场景。

企业资源规划(ERP)系统中的金融风险检测是机器学习的重要但研究不足的应用领域。现有研究常因数据描述模糊、管道存在泄露及评估方法虚高而不可靠。本文构建了基于集成学习的重制实验框架,涵盖采购合规异常与交易欺诈双重风险定义。整合公开采购日志、标注欺诈数据及新生成的规则注入型合成数据集,并通过条件表格生成对抗网络增强。采用时间感知与分组感知的嵌套交叉验证,确保全流程防泄露。主模型为梯度提升法的堆叠集成,对比线性基线、深度表格式架构及可解释的玻璃箱模型。性能以马修斯相关系数、精度-召回曲线下面积和校准概率的成本敏感决策分析衡量。在多种数据配置与结构化消融实验中,堆叠集成表现最佳,且防泄露协议使先前虚高的准确率显著下降。SHAP解释与特征稳定性分析表明,采购控制特征,尤其是三单匹配差异,为最有效的预测因子。该框架为ERP审计与治理中的机器学习部署提供了可复现、可操作的范本。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial risk detection in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems is an important but underexplored application of machine learning. Published studies in this area tend to suffer from vague dataset descriptions, leakage-prone pipelines, and evaluation practices that inflate reported performance. This paper presents a rebuilt experimental framework for ERP financial risk detection using ensemble machine learning. The risk definition is hybrid, covering both procurement compliance anomalies and transactional fraud. A composite benchmark called ERP-RiskBench is assembled from public procurement event logs, labeled fraud data, and a new synthetic ERP dataset with rule-injected risk typologies and conditional tabular GAN augmentation. Nested cross-validation with time-aware and group-aware splitting enforces leakage prevention throughout the pipeline. The primary model is a stacking ensemble of gradient boosting methods, tested alongside linear baselines, deep tabular architectures, and an interpretable glassbox alternative. Performance is measured through Matthews Correlation Coefficient, area under the precision-recall curve, and cost-sensitive decision analysis using calibrated probabilities. Across multiple dataset configurations and a structured ablation study, the stacking ensemble achieves the best detection results. Leakage-safe protocols reduce previously inflated accuracy estimates by a notable margin. SHAP-based explanations and feature stability analysis show that procurement control features, especially three-way matching discrepancies, rank as the most informative predictors. The resulting framework provides a reproducible, operationally grounded blueprint for machine learning deployment in ERP audit and governance settings.

金融风险ERP集成学习防泄露

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