用预训练时序模型生成特征,提升回归模型电价预测精度。
Regression Models Meet Foundation Models: A Hybrid-AI Approach to Practical Electricity Price Forecasting
- 将冻结的时序基础模型生成的预测特征注入回归模型,融合历史模式与变量关联。
- 在真实电力市场数据上,平均绝对误差降低超30%,显著优于主流方法。
- 模型轻量可插拔,兼具可解释性,适合实际市场应用与决策支持。
电力市场价格具有极端波动性、非线性和非平稳性,准确预测极具挑战。尽管先进的时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)能有效捕捉时序依赖关系,但通常未能充分利用跨变量相关性和非周期性模式,而这些对价格预测至关重要。相反,回归模型虽擅长捕捉特征间交互作用,却受限于仅使用未来可得输入,忽略了预测时刻不可用的历史驱动因素。为此,我们提出FutureBoosting,一种新范式:通过冻结的TSFM生成预测特征,并将其作为增强输入注入下游回归模型,从而利用其建模历史模式的能力。该方法被实例化为一个轻量级、即插即用的电力价格预测框架。在真实电力市场数据上的大量评估表明,该框架持续优于最先进的TSFMs和回归基线,在多数情况下实现超过30%的平均绝对误差(MAE)下降。通过消融实验和可解释AI(XAI)技术,我们验证了预测特征的贡献并揭示了模型决策过程。FutureBoosting为实际市场参与提供了鲁棒、可解释且高效的方法,为提升回归模型的时序上下文理解能力提供通用框架。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal dependencies, they typically underutilize cross-variate correlations and non-periodic patterns that are essential for price forecasting. Conversely, regression models excel at capturing feature interactions but are limited to future-available inputs, ignoring crucial historical drivers that are unavailable at forecast time. To bridge this gap, we propose FutureBoosting, a novel paradigm that enhances regression-based forecasts by integrating forecasted features generated from a frozen TSFM. This approach leverages the TSFM's ability to model historical patterns and injects these insights as enriched inputs into a downstream regression model. We instantiate this paradigm into a lightweight, plug-and-play framework for electricity price forecasting. Extensive evaluations on real-world electricity market data demonstrate that our framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and regression baselines, achieving reductions in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of more than 30% at most. Through ablation studies and explainable AI (XAI) techniques, we validate the contribution of forecasted features and elucidate the model's decision-making process. FutureBoosting establishes a robust, interpretable, and effective solution for practical market participation, offering a general framework for enhancing regression models with temporal context.
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