arXiv:2603.06767cs.LGcs.AI2026-03AAAI

用可解释的符号学习预测乙烯氧化过程故障,效果优于传统模型。

Failure Detection in Chemical Processes Using Symbolic Machine Learning: A Case Study on Ethylene Oxidation

  • 基于概率规则的符号机器学习,从噪声数据中提取可解释模型。
  • 在仿真数据上表现超越随机森林与多层感知机,准确率更高。
  • 适合需要安全可解释性的化工故障预警场景,助操作员决策。

过去十年,人工智能主要由大规模神经方法推动,但在化工行业这类对安全要求极高的领域,这些方法因脆弱性、缺乏可解释性而难以应用。此外,该领域公开的真实故障数据集稀缺。本文研究了一种基于符号机器学习的化工过程故障预测方法,并以乙烯氧化过程为例开展可行性研究。所提方法基于先进的符号学习系统,能从上下文相关的噪声样本中学习概率规则形式的预测模型。该系统为通用型符号学习器,不依赖特定化工流程。针对真实故障数据缺失问题,研究采用化工过程仿真生成的数据进行实验。结果表明,符号机器学习在性能上优于随机森林和多层感知机等基线方法,同时通过生成简洁的规则模型保持了可解释性。最后,论文说明了如何将此类规则模型集成到智能代理中,辅助化工厂操作员在潜在故障时做出决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Over the past decade, Artificial Intelligence has significantly advanced, mostly driven by large-scale neural approaches. However, in the chemical process industry, where safety is critical, these methods are often unsuitable due to their brittleness, and lack of explainability and interpretability. Furthermore, open-source real-world datasets containing historical failures are scarce in this domain. In this paper, we investigate an approach for predicting failures in chemical processes using symbolic machine learning and conduct a feasibility study in the context of an ethylene oxidation process. Our method builds on a state-of-the-art symbolic machine learning system capable of learning predictive models in the form of probabilistic rules from context-dependent noisy examples. This system is a general-purpose symbolic learner, which makes our approach independent of any specific chemical process. To address the lack of real-world failure data, we conduct our feasibility study leveraging data generated from a chemical process simulator. Experimental results show that symbolic machine learning can outperform baseline methods such as random forest and multilayer perceptron, while preserving interpretability through the generation of compact, rule-based predictive models. Finally, we explain how such learned rule-based models could be integrated into agents to assist chemical plant operators in decision-making during potential failures.

故障检测符号学习化工安全可解释AI

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