arXiv:2603.06984stat.MLcs.AI2026-03

用平均约束隐藏因果影响,看似合规实则易被规避。

Masking Causality and Conditional Dependence

  • 通过线性规划构建因果遮蔽机制,用平均约束替代分层约束。
  • 平均约束下政策几乎必然违反分层要求,但能精确满足平均条件。
  • 适合关注公平性、敏感决策监管的学者与政策制定者。

许多监管与分析问题要求禁止变量仅通过指定允许通道影响决策——即路径特定的条件独立性要求,这出现在路径特定公平性、机密信息处理及非公开信息交易监管等场景中。此类要求可逐层施加,或更常见且高效地通过单一平均约束来实现。本文从监管方和优化方双重视角研究此执行问题:监管方视角下,将因果遮蔽建模为线性规划,发现平均约束优化几乎必然导致分层要求被违反,而平均约束被精确满足;遮蔽收益随混杂程度与结果异质性增加,而检测需依赖平均约束本欲规避的条件独立性检验。优化方视角下,同一构造表明,遮蔽策略虽受限于无约束利用的回报,却极难被发现,因此在决策基础本身敏感的场景中极具吸引力。综合结果表明,仅通过观察决策的平均统计量来监管直接依赖是结构性受限的,真正有效的监管必须作用于决策规则本身。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many regulatory and analytic problems require that a prohibited variable influence a decision only through a designated allowable channel -- a conditional-independence requirement that arises in path-specific fairness, the handling of classified information, and the regulation of trading on non-public information, among other settings. Such requirements may be enforced either stratum-by-stratum or, more commonly (and more efficiently), through a single averaged constraint on the conditional effect. We study the resulting enforcement problem from two perspectives. From the regulator's side, we formulate causal masking as a linear program and show that averaged-constraint optimization almost surely produces policies that violate the stratum-wise requirement while satisfying the averaged one exactly. The gains from masking grow with confounding and outcome heterogeneity, and detection requires precisely the conditional-independence tests that average constraints aim to avoid. From the optimizer's side, the same construction shows that masked policies recover most of the reward of unconstrained exploitation while being far harder to detect, making them attractive in any setting where the basis of decisions is itself sensitive. Together, these results argue that regulating direct dependence through averaged statistics on observed decisions is structurally limited, and that meaningful enforcement must operate at the level of the decision rule itself.

因果推理公平性监管科技

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。