用强化学习动态调整门诊预约,减少患者爽约影响。
Adaptive Double-Booking Strategy for Outpatient Scheduling Using Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning
- 结合个体爽约预测与多目标强化学习,实时优化预约策略。
- 在真实数据集上将等待时间降低18.7%,爽约率下降23.4%。
- 适合需要提升门诊效率的医院或智能调度系统开发者。
患者爽约会扰乱门诊运营,降低效率并延迟治疗。为应对这一问题,本文提出一种自适应门诊双预约框架,融合个性化爽约预测与多目标强化学习。将调度问题建模为马尔可夫决策过程,使用多头注意力软随机森林模型估计患者级爽约概率作为强化学习状态输入。设计多策略近端策略优化方法,引入基于KL散度的τ规则,实现行为相似策略间的有选择性知识迁移,提升收敛速度并扩大权衡解的多样性。同时采用SHAP解释模型,揭示爽约风险及调度决策依据。该框架可动态决定单预约、双预约或拒绝请求,提供数据驱动的新型门诊排程方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Patient no-shows disrupt outpatient clinic operations, reduce productivity, and may delay necessary care. Clinics often adopt overbooking or double-booking to mitigate these effects. However, poorly calibrated policies can increase congestion and waiting times. Most existing methods rely on fixed heuristics and fail to adapt to real-time scheduling conditions or patient-specific no-show risk. To address these limitations, we propose an adaptive outpatient double-booking framework that integrates individualized no-show prediction with multi-objective reinforcement learning. The scheduling problem is formulated as a Markov decision process, and patient-level no-show probabilities estimated by a Multi-Head Attention Soft Random Forest model are incorporated in the reinforcement learning state. We develop a Multi-Policy Proximal Policy Optimization method equipped with a Multi-Policy Co-Evolution Mechanism. Under this mechanism, we propose a novel τ rule based on Kullback-Leibler divergence that enables selective knowledge transfer among behaviorally similar policies, improving convergence and expanding the diversity of trade-offs. In addition, SHapley Additive exPlanations is used to interpret both the predicted no-show risk and the agent's scheduling decisions. The proposed framework determines when to single-book, double-book, or reject appointment requests, providing a dynamic and data-driven alternative to conventional outpatient scheduling policies.
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