arXiv:2603.07686cs.ROcs.CV2026-03中稿 · ICRA被引 3

首个统一建模静态与动态不确定性的端到端自动驾驶框架。

UniUncer: Unified Dynamic Static Uncertainty for End to End Driving

  • 用拉普拉斯回归统一建模静态地图与动态物体的不确定性
  • 在nuScenes上降低7%的轨迹误差,在NavsimV2提升10.8%的规划表现
  • 轻量设计可插拔,适合追求可靠决策的自动驾驶研究者

端到端(E2E)自动驾驶已成为产业与学术领域的核心方向,通过单一可学习流程将多传感器输入映射为控制指令,避免了人工设计模块。然而其可靠性高度依赖对不确定性的处理:传感器噪声、语义模糊及交通参与者交互的随机性均会引入不确定性,且形式多样,包括分类与定位差异,以及静态地图元素与动态目标的不确定性。现有方法仅建模静态地图不确定性,导致规划阶段易受过度自信输入影响。本文提出UniUncer,首个轻量级、统一的不确定性框架,可在E2E规划器中联合估计并利用静态与动态场景元素的不确定性。具体而言:(1) 将确定性头转换为输出每个顶点位置与尺度的拉普拉斯概率回归器,适用于向量化表示的静态与动态实体;(2) 设计不确定性融合模块,编码这些参数并注入对象/地图查询,生成不确定性感知查询;(3) 引入不确定性感知门控机制,根据当前不确定性水平自适应调节对历史输入(自身状态或时序感知查询)的依赖程度。该设计带来极小开销,吞吐率仅下降约0.5 FPS,且兼容主流E2E骨干网络。在nuScenes(开环)上,平均L2轨迹误差减少7%;在NavsimV2(伪闭环)上,整体EPDMS提升10.8%,尤其在高交互复杂场景下第二阶段性能显著增强。消融实验证明动态目标不确定性与不确定性感知门控均不可或缺。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

End-to-end (E2E) driving has become a cornerstone of both industry deployment and academic research, offering a single learnable pipeline that maps multi-sensor inputs to actions while avoiding hand-engineered modules. However, the reliability of such pipelines strongly depends on how well they handle uncertainty: sensors are noisy, semantics can be ambiguous, and interaction with other road users is inherently stochastic. Uncertainty also appears in multiple forms: classification vs. localization, and, crucially, in both static map elements and dynamic agents. Existing E2E approaches model only static-map uncertainty, leaving planning vulnerable to overconfident and unreliable inputs. We present UniUncer, the first lightweight, unified uncertainty framework that jointly estimates and uses uncertainty for both static and dynamic scene elements inside an E2E planner. Concretely: (1) we convert deterministic heads to probabilistic Laplace regressors that output per-vertex location and scale for vectorized static and dynamic entities; (2) we introduce an uncertainty-fusion module that encodes these parameters and injects them into object/map queries to form uncertainty-aware queries; and (3) we design an uncertainty-aware gate that adaptively modulates reliance on historical inputs (ego status or temporal perception queries) based on current uncertainty levels. The design adds minimal overhead and drops throughput by only $\sim$0.5 FPS while remaining plug-and-play for common E2E backbones. On nuScenes (open-loop), UniUncer reduces average L2 trajectory error by 7\%. On NavsimV2 (pseudo closed-loop), it improves overall EPDMS by 10.8\% and notable stage two gains in challenging, interaction-heavy scenes. Ablations confirm that dynamic-agent uncertainty and the uncertainty-aware gate are both necessary.

自动驾驶不确定性建模端到端规划

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