区分观测噪声与模型误差,让机器人针对性地修复或调整动作。
TRIAGE: Type-Routed Interventions via Aleatoric-Epistemic Gated Estimation in Robotic Manipulation and Adaptive Perception -- Don't Treat All Uncertainty the Same
- 用马哈拉诺比密度模型和鲁棒动力学集成,分离观测不确定性和模型不确定性。
- 在机械臂操作中成功率从59.4%提升至80.4%,感知任务计算量减少58.2%。
- 适合需要精准应对不同类型不确定性的机器人控制与视觉追踪场景。
多数不确定性感知的机器人系统将预测不确定性压缩为单一标量,并据此触发统一修正响应。这种聚合掩盖了不确定性源于观测损坏还是模型与真实动态不匹配的本质差异,导致修正动作可能作用于错误环节,反而降低性能。本文提出一种轻量级事后框架,将不确定性分解为随机性(aleatoric)与认知性(epistemic)分量,并在推理时据此调节系统响应。随机性不确定性通过马哈拉诺比密度模型从观测分布偏差中估计,认知性不确定性则利用抗噪前向动力学集成检测模型失配。二者在闭环执行中保持近正交关系,支持类型化响应:高随机性触发观测恢复,高认知性则弱化控制动作。相同信号还用于自适应感知,指导追踪推理中的模型容量选择。实验表明,在控制与感知任务中均实现持续改进:在机械臂操作中,复合扰动下任务成功率由59.4%提升至80.4%,优于联合不确定性基线最高达21.0%;在MOT17上,不确定性引导的模型选择使平均计算量降低58.2%,同时检测质量仅下降0.4%。代码与演示视频见https://divake.github.io/uncertainty-decomposition/
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Most uncertainty-aware robotic systems collapse prediction uncertainty into a single scalar score and use it to trigger uniform corrective responses. This aggregation obscures whether uncertainty arises from corrupted observations or from mismatch between the learned model and the true system dynamics. As a result, corrective actions may be applied to the wrong component of the closed loop, degrading performance relative to leaving the policy unchanged. We introduce a lightweight post hoc framework that decomposes uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components and uses these signals to regulate system responses at inference time. Aleatoric uncertainty is estimated from deviations in the observation distribution using a Mahalanobis density model, while epistemic uncertainty is detected using a noise robust forward dynamics ensemble that isolates model mismatch from measurement corruption. The two signals remain empirically near orthogonal during closed loop execution and enable type specific responses. High aleatoric uncertainty triggers observation recovery, while high epistemic uncertainty moderates control actions. The same signals also regulate adaptive perception by guiding model capacity selection during tracking inference. Experiments demonstrate consistent improvements across both control and perception tasks. In robotic manipulation, the decomposed controller improves task success from 59.4% to 80.4% under compound perturbations and outperforms a combined uncertainty baseline by up to 21.0%. In adaptive tracking inference on MOT17, uncertainty-guided model selection reduces average compute by 58.2% relative to a fixed high capacity detector while preserving detection quality within 0.4%. Code and demo videos are available at https://divake.github.io/uncertainty-decomposition/.
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