用两阶段框架修复模糊火情数据,提升预测准确性。
Robust Wildfire Forecasting under Partial Observability: From Reconstruction to Prediction
- 先重建被云烟遮挡的火情图,再预测火势蔓延
- 在80%数据缺失下,预测准确率接近完整数据水平
- 适合处理卫星图像不全的实时火灾预警场景
基于卫星的火情观测是学习型野火蔓延预测的主要输入,但常因云层、烟雾和传感器误差而缺失。这种部分可观测性导致训练数据与部署时输入之间存在领域差距,常引发不可靠预测。为此,本文提出一种两阶段概率框架,将观测恢复与时空预测解耦:第一阶段通过条件修复重建受损观测,第二阶段在恢复序列上使用时空预测网络建模火势动态。评估了四种重建模型(MaskUNet、MaskCVAE、MaskViT、MaskD3PM),覆盖CNN、潜变量、注意力与扩散模型。在WildfireSpreadTS(WSTS)数据集上测试,涵盖像素级与块级掩码、8种失真程度(10%-80%)、4类火情场景及留一年验证。结果表明,所有学习型恢复模型均显著优于非学习基线,其中MaskCVAE和MaskUNet表现最优。关键发现:在预测前加入重建阶段可有效缓解领域差距,即使在严重信息丢失下,次日预测准确率仍可恢复至接近干净输入水平。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Satellite-derived fire observations are the primary input for learning-based wildfire spread prediction, yet they are inherently incomplete due to cloud cover, smoke obscuration, and sensor artifacts. This partial observability introduces a domain gap between the clean data used to train forecasting models and the degraded inputs encountered during deployment, often leading to unreliable predictions. To address this challenge, we formulate wildfire forecasting under partial observability using a two-stage probabilistic framework that decouples observation recovery from spatiotemporal prediction. Stage-I reconstructs plausible fire maps from corrupted observations via conditional inpainting, while Stage-II models wildfire dynamics on the recovered sequences using a spatiotemporal forecasting network. We consider four network architectures for the reconstruction module-a Residual U-Net (MaskUNet), a Conditional VAE (MaskCVAE), a cross-attention Vision Transformer (MaskViT), and a discrete diffusion model (MaskD3PM)-spanning CNN-based, latent-variable, attention-based, and diffusion-based approaches. We evaluate the performance of the two-stage approach on the WildfireSpreadTS (WSTS) dataset under various settings, including pixel-wise and block-wise masking, eight corruption levels (10%-80%), four fire scenarios, and leave-one-year-out cross-validation. Results show that all learning-based recovery models substantially outperform non-learning baselines, with MaskCVAE and MaskUNet achieving the strongest overall performance. Importantly, inserting the reconstruction stage before forecasting significantly mitigates the domain gap, restoring next-day prediction accuracy to near-clean-input levels even under severe information loss.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。