arXiv:2603.09174eess.SYcs.AI2026-03

将交通流的随机性融入物理约束,实现分布式的交通状态生成与风险评估。

Differentiable Stochastic Traffic Dynamics: Physics-Informed Generative Modelling in Transportation

  • 基于带布朗力的随机交通模型,构建分布式物理约束
  • 可生成密度分布、可信区间及拥堵风险指标
  • 适合需要量化不确定性的智能交通系统研究

宏观交通流具有随机性,但现有物理信息深度学习方法通常嵌入确定性偏微分方程,输出为点估计,未能体现动态过程的随机性。本文从带有布朗扰动的伊藤型Lighthill-Whitham-Richards模型出发,推导出各空间位置交通密度的单点前向方程。由守恒律引出的空间耦合以显式条件漂移项呈现,使闭合需求清晰可见。在此基础上,我们推导出一个等价的确定性概率流常微分方程,只需指定闭合形式即可逐点求解并保持可微。将该方程作为物理约束,提出一种含输运-闭合模块的分数网络,通过去噪分数匹配与福克-普兰克残差损失联合训练。模型目标是数据条件下的密度分布,从中可计算点估计、可信区间和拥堵风险度量。该框架为物理信息驱动的分布式交通状态估计与随机基本图分析提供基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Macroscopic traffic flow is stochastic, but the physics-informed deep learning methods currently used in transportation literature embed deterministic PDEs and produce point-valued outputs; the stochasticity of the governing dynamics plays no role in the learned representation. This work develops a framework in which the physics constraint itself is distributional and directly derived from stochastic traffic-flow dynamics. Starting from an Ito-type Lighthill-Whitham-Richards model with Brownian forcing, we derive a one-point forward equation for the marginal traffic density at each spatial location. The spatial coupling induced by the conservation law appears as an explicit conditional drift term, which makes the closure requirement transparent. Based on this formulation, we derive an equivalent deterministic Probability Flow ODE that is pointwise evaluable and differentiable once a closure is specified. Incorporating this as a physics constraint, we then propose a score network with an advection-closure module, trainable by denoising score matching together with a Fokker-Planck residual loss. The resulting model targets a data-conditioned density distribution, from which point estimates, credible intervals, and congestion-risk measures can be computed. The framework provides a basis for distributional traffic-state estimation and for stochastic fundamental-diagram analysis in a physics-informed generative setting.

交通建模随机动力学生成模型物理信息

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