用量子模型辅助训练,经典模型推理,提升股市波动率预测精度。
A Hybrid Quantum Circuit Born Machine Framework for Financial Volatility Forecasting: Quantum-Assisted Training and Classical Inference
- LSTM提取时序特征,量子电路生成器建模复杂市场分布作为先验。
- 在上证综指和沪深300数据上,均方误差等指标优于纯经典LSTM。
- 训练时引入随机丢弃先验机制,使模型部署后无需量子硬件仍有效。
准确的金融波动率预测对风险管理至关重要,但受市场数据非线性与高度相关性挑战。近期量子计算为解决高维采样难题提供了新路径。本文提出一种混合框架,结合经典神经网络的时间表征能力与量子模型的分布学习能力:将长短期记忆网络(LSTM)与量子电路玻恩机(QCBM)融合。LSTM捕捉动态特征,QCBM作为可学习生成先验,建模复杂市场分布以指导预测。在上证综指与沪深300指数5分钟高频数据上评估,模型在均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和广义似然误差(QLIKE)上显著优于经典LSTM基线。通过引入训练阶段的随机‘丢弃先验’机制,LSTM隐式地从量子先验中提炼结构化信息。该框架实现‘量子辅助训练、经典高效推理’,即使部署时完全关闭量子模块,模型仍保持量子增强的预测精度,为利用量子计算提升经典模型提供了无实时量子延迟的实用路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate financial volatility forecasting is crucial but challenged by the non-linear, highly correlated nature of market data. Recently, quantum computing has emerged as a promising paradigm for solving complex high-dimensional sampling problems. To harness this, we propose a novel hybrid framework combining the temporal representation power of classical neural networks with the distribution-learning capabilities of quantum models. Specifically, we integrate a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with a Quantum Circuit Born Machine (QCBM). The LSTM extracts dynamic features, while the QCBM acts as a learnable generative prior modeling complex market distributions to guide forecasting. Evaluated on 5-minute high-frequency data from the SSE Composite and CSI 300 indices, our model significantly outperforms a classical LSTM baseline across MSE, RMSE, and QLIKE metrics. Furthermore, by introducing a stochastic ``Drop-Prior" mechanism during training, the LSTM implicitly distills structured information from the quantum prior. This establishes a pragmatic paradigm of ``quantum-assisted training with classical-efficient inference", whereby the model retains its quantum-enhanced accuracy even when the quantum module is entirely disabled during deployment. This demonstrates a practical pathway for leveraging quantum computing to enhance classical models without real-time quantum inference latency.
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