arXiv:2603.09842cs.LGstat.ME2026-03

统一框架融合多任务与多精度数据,提升制造系统建模效率与精度。

A Unified Hierarchical Multi-Task Multi-Fidelity Framework for Data-Efficient Surrogate Modeling in Manufacturing

  • 分层贝叶斯建模分离全局趋势与局部残差,共享跨任务信息。
  • 在真实发动机表面预测中,相比基准模型提升19%~23%预测精度。
  • 适合处理多源异质数据的制造系统建模,尤其适用于数据稀缺场景。

代理建模是量化制造与工程系统中输入变量与系统响应关系的关键数据驱动技术。其有效性受两大挑战制约:(1) 学习复杂非线性关系需要大量数据;(2) 来自不同精度水平数据源的异质数据。多任务学习(MTL)通过跨相关任务的信息共享缓解第一类问题,多精度建模则通过考虑精度依赖的不确定性应对第二类问题。然而,现有方法通常分别处理这两类挑战,缺乏同时利用任务间相似性与精度差异的统一框架。本文提出一种基于高斯过程的分层多任务多精度(H-MT-MF)框架。该框架将每个任务的响应分解为任务特异的全局趋势与联合学习的残差局部变异性成分,采用分层贝叶斯结构实现。该框架支持任意数量的任务、设计点和精度等级,并提供预测不确定性量化。我们在一个一维合成示例和一个真实的发动机表面形状预测案例研究中验证了所提方法的有效性。相较于(1)不考虑精度信息的先进MTL模型,以及(2)独立学习各任务的随机克里金模型,所提方法预测精度分别提升最高达19%和23%。该框架为具有异质数据来源的制造系统代理建模提供了通用且可扩展的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Surrogate modeling is an essential data-driven technique for quantifying relationships between input variables and system responses in manufacturing and engineering systems. Two major challenges limit its effectiveness: (1) large data requirements for learning complex nonlinear relationships, and (2) heterogeneous data collected from sources with varying fidelity levels. Multi-task learning (MTL) addresses the first challenge by enabling information sharing across related processes, while multi-fidelity modeling addresses the second by accounting for fidelity-dependent uncertainty. However, existing approaches typically address these challenges separately, and no unified framework simultaneously leverages inter-task similarity and fidelity-dependent data characteristics. This paper develops a novel hierarchical multi-task multi-fidelity (H-MT-MF) framework for Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling. The proposed framework decomposes each task's response into a task-specific global trend and a residual local variability component that is jointly learned across tasks using a hierarchical Bayesian formulation. The framework accommodates an arbitrary number of tasks, design points, and fidelity levels while providing predictive uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method using a 1D synthetic example and a real-world engine surface shape prediction case study. Compared to (1) a state-of-the-art MTL model that does not account for fidelity information and (2) a stochastic kriging model that learns tasks independently, the proposed approach improves prediction accuracy by up to 19% and 23%, respectively. The H-MT-MF framework provides a general and extensible solution for surrogate modeling in manufacturing systems characterized by heterogeneous data sources.

代理建模多任务学习多精度建模制造系统

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