arXiv:2603.10099cs.LGcs.CR2026-03被引 1

改进人口普查数据去噪算法,提升县和普查区层级准确性。

Denoising the US Census: Succinct Block Hierarchical Regression

  • 基于分层结构设计最优线性无偏回归,计算效率从矩阵乘法降为线性时间。
  • 在县和普查区层级评估指标上显著优于现有方法,精度提升明显。
  • 适用于需要高精度地理数据的政府规划与科研场景。

美国人口普查局披露避免系统(DAS)在2020年人口普查中平衡了保密性与数据可用性需求,用于立法分配、选区划分、联邦与州资金分配、城市及基础设施规划和科学研究。其核心是TopDown算法,通过六级地理层级的数十亿条隐私噪声测量值组合,生成一致且更准确的新估计值。本文提出BlueDown新后处理方法,在保持相同隐私保护和结构约束条件下,进一步提升估计精度,尤其在县和普查区层级表现突出。技术上,我们开发了一种利用测量分层结构的广义最小二乘回归算法,成为线性无偏估计中的统计最优解;计算复杂度从矩阵乘法降至线性时间,可应对普查规模数据。通过结合优化算法扩展TDA以支持相关测量,并采用简洁线性代数操作利用测量与约束的对称性,大幅提升效率。该分层回归与简洁运算具有独立研究价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The US Census Bureau Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) balances confidentiality and utility requirements for the decennial US Census (Abowd et al., 2022). The DAS was used in the 2020 Census to produce demographic datasets critically used for legislative apportionment and redistricting, federal and state funding allocation, municipal and infrastructure planning, and scientific research. At the heart of DAS is TopDown, a heuristic post-processing method that combines billions of private noisy measurements across six geographic levels in order to produce new estimates that are consistent, more accurate, and satisfy certain structural constraints on the data. In this work, we introduce BlueDown, a new post-processing method that produces more accurate, consistent estimates while satisfying the same privacy guarantees and structural constraints. We obtain especially large accuracy improvements for aggregates at the county and tract levels on evaluation metrics proposed by the US Census Bureau. From a technical perspective, we develop a new algorithm for generalized least-squares regression that leverages the hierarchical structure of the measurements and that is statistically optimal among linear unbiased estimators. This reduces the computational dependence on the number of geographic regions measured from matrix multiplication time, which would be infeasible for census-scale data, to linear time. We incorporate the additional structural constraints by combining this regression algorithm with an optimization routine that extends TDA to support correlated measurements. We further improve the efficiency of our algorithm using succinct linear-algebraic operations that exploit symmetries in the structure of the measurements and constraints. We believe our hierarchical regression and succinct operations to be of independent interest.

人口普查数据去噪分层回归隐私保护

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