arXiv:2603.10305cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2026-03

用可解释的积分核学习非局部气候预测,提升精度同时减少参数量。

Data-Driven Integration Kernels for Interpretable Nonlocal Operator Learning

  • 通过可学习的积分核分离非局部聚合与局部非线性预测
  • 在南亚季风降水预测中,参数减少90%以上,性能接近基线
  • 核函数可直观展示哪些时空位置对预测贡献最大,适合气候建模者

机器学习模型可表征水平空间、高度和时间上具有非局部特性的气候过程,常通过高度非线性方式融合多维信息。尽管这能提升预测能力,但使学习关系难以解释且易过拟合。本文提出数据驱动的积分核框架,通过显式分离非局部信息聚合与局部非线性预测来增加结构。每个时空预测场先通过可学习的核函数(定义为水平空间、高度和/或时间上的连续加权函数)进行积分,再对积分后特征及可选本地输入施加局部非线性映射。该设计将非线性交互限制在少量集成特征内,使每个核函数可直接解释为揭示哪些水平位置、垂直层次和过去时间步对预测贡献最大的加权模式。我们在南亚季风降水预测任务中,使用一系列结构递增的神经网络模型(包括基线、非参数核、参数核模型)验证该框架。在整个模型层级中,核模型以远少的可训练参数实现接近基线的性能,表明在适当结构约束下,大部分相关非局部信息可通过少量可解释的积分捕获。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Machine learning models can represent climate processes that are nonlocal in horizontal space, height, and time, often by combining information across these dimensions in highly nonlinear ways. While this can improve predictive skill, it makes learned relationships difficult to interpret and prone to overfitting as the extent of nonlocal information grows. We address this challenge by introducing data-driven integration kernels, a framework that adds structure to nonlocal operator learning by explicitly separating nonlocal information aggregation from local nonlinear prediction. Each spatiotemporal predictor field is first integrated using learnable kernels (defined as continuous weighting functions over horizontal space, height, and/or time), after which a local nonlinear mapping is applied only to the resulting kernel-integrated features and optional local inputs. This design confines nonlinear interactions to a small set of integrated features and makes each kernel directly interpretable as a weighting pattern that reveals which horizontal locations, vertical levels, and past timesteps contribute most to the prediction. We demonstrate the framework for South Asian monsoon precipitation using a hierarchy of neural network models with increasing structure, including baseline, nonparametric kernel, and parametric kernel models. Across this hierarchy, kernel models achieve near-baseline performance with far fewer trainable parameters, indicating that much of the relevant nonlocal information can be captured through a small set of interpretable integrations when appropriate structural constraints are imposed.

非局部算子可解释性气候建模积分核

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