用周尺度天气数据构建通用建筑能耗模型,单地训练即可跨区域高效预测。
High-resolution weather-guided surrogate modeling for data-efficient cross-location building energy prediction
- 基于周级天气数据捕捉跨区域共有的短期能耗模式
- 单地训练后在同气候区预测误差极低,跨气候区仅轻微下降
- 无需多地点模拟,显著提升模型复用性,适合建筑节能优化场景
建筑设计优化常依赖EnergyPlus等物理仿真工具,虽精度高但计算成本大、速度慢。替代方案是代理模型,但多数为地域特异性,即使有天气信息的模型也需多个站点的大量模拟才能泛化至未见地点。其瓶颈在于未能充分利用不同区域间共享的短期天气驱动能耗模式,限制了可扩展性和复用性。本文提出一种高分辨率(周级)天气引导的代理建模方法,通过捕捉多个区域共有的短期天气-能耗需求模式,构建出具有强泛化能力的通用代理模型。相比以往方法,该模型无需多站点大规模仿真即可实现良好跨域性能。实验表明,仅在单一地点训练后,模型在同气候区内预测精度保持高水平,无明显性能下降;跨气候区应用时仅出现微小退化。结果表明,气候信息引导的泛化策略可推动可扩展、可复用代理模型的发展,支持更可持续的建筑优化设计。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Building design optimization often depends on physics-based simulation tools such as EnergyPlus, which, although accurate, are computationally expensive and slow. Surrogate models provide a faster alternative, yet most are location-specific, and even weather-informed variants require simulations from many sites to generalize to unseen locations. This limitation arises because existing methods do not fully exploit the short-term weather-driven energy patterns shared across regions, restricting their scalability and reusability. This study introduces a high-resolution (weekly) weather-informed surrogate modeling approach that enhances model reusability across locations. By capturing recurring short-term weather-energy demand patterns common to multiple regions, the proposed method produces a generalized surrogate that performs well beyond the training location. Unlike previous weather-informed approaches, it does not require extensive simulations from multiple sites to achieve strong generalization. Experimental results show that when trained on a single location, the model maintains high predictive accuracy for other sites within the same climate zone, with no noticeable performance loss, and exhibits only minimal degradation when applied across different climate zones. These findings demonstrate the potential of climate-informed generalization for developing scalable and reusable surrogate models, supporting more sustainable and optimized building design practices.
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