arXiv:2603.11462cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

融合离散事件与连续动态,提升时间点过程预测精度。

Bridging Discrete Marks and Continuous Dynamics: Dual-Path Cross-Interaction for Marked Temporal Point Processes

  • 双通道并行处理:离散事件标记与连续状态演化同步进行
  • 跨注意力机制实现双向交互,显著提升预测性能
  • 适用于医疗、金融等异步事件序列建模任务

预测具有离散标记的不规则事件序列面临巨大挑战,因连续时间数据流中存在复杂的非同步依赖关系。现有序列方法虽捕捉事件间依赖,却忽略事件间的连续演化;神经微分方程(Neural ODE)可建模平滑动态,却未能体现事件类型对后续发生时间的影响。为此,我们提出 NEXTPP,一种基于事件粒度神经演化的双路径交叉交互框架,用于带标记的时间点过程。NEXTPP 通过自注意力编码离散事件标记,同时使用 Neural ODE 持续演化隐含状态。两条路径经交叉注意力模块融合,实现离散与连续表示的显式双向交互。融合表示驱动神经霍克斯过程的条件强度函数,并采用迭代薄采样生成未来事件。在五个真实数据集上的实验表明,NEXTPP 始终优于现有先进模型。代码开源于 https://github.com/AONE-NLP/NEXTPP。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting irregularly spaced event sequences with discrete marks poses significant challenges due to the complex, asynchronous dependencies embedded within continuous-time data streams.Existing sequential approaches capture dependencies among event tokens but ignore the continuous evolution between events, while Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) methods model smooth dynamics yet fail to account for how event types influence future timing.To overcome these limitations, we propose NEXTPP, a dual-channel framework that unifies discrete and continuous representations via Event-granular Neural Evolution with Cross-Interaction for Marked Temporal Point Processes. Specifically, NEXTPP encodes discrete event marks via a self-attention mechanism, simultaneously evolving a latent continuous-time state using a Neural ODE. These parallel streams are then fused through a crossattention module to enable explicit bidirectional interaction between continuous and discrete representations. The fused representations drive the conditional intensity function of the neural Hawkes process, while an iterative thinning sampler is employed to generate future events. Extensive evaluations on five real-world datasets demonstrate that NEXTPP consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models. The source code can be found at https://github.com/AONE-NLP/NEXTPP.

时间点过程神经微分方程事件序列建模

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