arXiv:2603.11475cs.LGcs.NI2026-03

针对网络流量预测,提出融合拓扑与时序的深度学习框架,提升多变量时间序列预测精度与稳定性。

Deep Learning Network-Temporal Models For Traffic Prediction

  • 设计图注意力模型捕捉网络拓扑引发的流量相关性
  • 通过聚类预处理降低高维数据复杂度,提升学习稳定性
  • 在真实骨干网数据上实现平均精度与个体预测方差双重优化

准确预测多变量时间序列对网络智能控制、可观测性与管理至关重要。现有统计方法和浅层机器学习模型在多变量时间序列预测中表现有限,仅关注平均精度,忽视了不同时间序列间的异质依赖结构及性能波动。大语言模型虽为时间序列预测带来新方向,但在显式建模结构依赖方面仍研究不足,尤其在网络环境中。本文提出一种面向大规模网络流量预测的拓扑感知学习框架,显式建模多变量网络时间序列中的时序动态与结构依赖。首先,采用图注意力模型捕获由网络拓扑引发的流量序列相关性;其次,评估微调的大语言模型表示以增强对异构流量模式的泛化能力;为进一步应对高维流量数据中复杂的交叉相关性,引入基于聚类的预处理阶段,对具有相似依赖特性的流量流进行分组,降低输入复杂度并提升学习稳定性。在真实骨干网流量数据上的实验表明,该方法在平均精度上持续优于统计模型与循环神经网络基线,并在个体时间序列上的预测质量波动显著减小。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate prediction of multivariate time series is essential for emerging network intelligent control, observability, and management functions. Existing statistical-based and shallow machine learning models have shown limited prediction capabilities on multivariate time series. They prioritize improvements in average prediction accuracy, while overlooking heterogeneous dependency structures and performance variability across individual time series. Recent advances in large language models have introduced new directions for multivariate time series forecasting; however, their application in conjunction with explicit structural dependency modeling remains relatively underexplored, especially in networked environments. In this paper, we present a topology-aware learning framework for large-scale network traffic prediction that explicitly models both temporal dynamics and structural dependencies in multivariate network time series. We first investigate a graph attention model designed to capture topology-induced correlations among network traffic time series. We then evaluate a fine-tuned large language model-based representations for improved generalization across heterogeneous traffic patterns. To further address the diversity of cross-correlations in high-dimensional traffic data, we introduce a clustering-based preprocessing stage that groups traffic flows with similar dependency characteristics prior to model training, reducing input complexity and improving learning stability. Experiments on real backbone traffic data show consistent improvements over statistical and recurrent neural network baselines. In addition to average accuracy, we evaluate performance across individual time series and observe reduced variability in prediction quality.

流量预测图神经网络多变量时间序列拓扑建模

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