arXiv:2603.11816cs.AI2026-03中稿 · ICDE 2026

通过时间折叠图与节点可见性机制,实现高效长时交通预测

VisiFold: Long-Term Traffic Forecasting via Temporal Folding Graph and Node Visibility

  • 将多时序快照融合为单一图结构,缓解时间膨胀问题
  • 80%节点掩码下仍优于基线模型,计算资源消耗显著降低
  • 适合大规模交通系统长期预测场景,突破时空资源瓶颈

交通预测是智能交通系统的核心。尽管短时预测已有进展,长时预测仍面临巨大挑战。延长预测时长加剧了计算资源消耗和时空依赖复杂性。现有方法依赖时空图且分步处理时序与空间,导致快照堆积膨胀和跨步信息碎片化。为此,我们提出VisiFold:引入新型时间折叠图,将一系列时序快照合并为单一图;同时设计节点可见性机制,结合节点级掩码与子图采样,突破大规模节点带来的计算瓶颈。大量实验表明,VisiFold不仅大幅降低资源消耗,还在长时预测任务中超越现有基线。尤为突出的是,即使在80%的高掩码比例下,仍保持性能优势。该工作有效打破了时空维度的资源约束,推动更真实的长时交通预测发展。代码已开源:https://github.com/PlanckChang/VisiFold。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traffic forecasting is a cornerstone of intelligent transportation systems. While existing research has made significant progress in short-term prediction, long-term forecasting remains a largely uncharted and challenging frontier. Extending the prediction horizon intensifies two critical issues: escalating computational resource consumption and increasingly complex spatial-temporal dependencies. Current approaches, which rely on spatial-temporal graphs and process temporal and spatial dimensions separately, suffer from snapshot-stacking inflation and cross-step fragmentation. To overcome these limitations, we propose \textit{VisiFold}. Our framework introduces a novel temporal folding graph that consolidates a sequence of temporal snapshots into a single graph. Furthermore, we present a node visibility mechanism that incorporates node-level masking and subgraph sampling to overcome the computational bottleneck imposed by large node counts. Extensive experiments show that VisiFold not only drastically reduces resource consumption but also outperforms existing baselines in long-term forecasting tasks. Remarkably, even with a high mask ratio of 80\%, VisiFold maintains its performance advantage. By effectively breaking the resource constraints in both temporal and spatial dimensions, our work paves the way for more realistic long-term traffic forecasting. The code is available at~ https://github.com/PlanckChang/VisiFold.

交通预测图神经网络长时预测效率优化

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