arXiv:2603.12012cs.LG2026-03

用深度学习建模结构系统在地震下的不确定响应,同时考虑荷载与参数不确定性。

Deep Learning-Based Metamodeling of Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamic Systems under Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty

  • 融合MLP/MPNN/AE与LSTM,用蒙特卡洛丢弃和负对数似然损失建模动态系统。
  • 在2个案例中预测误差低,复杂钢框架模型中MPNN-LSTM和AE-LSTM表现更优。
  • 预测方差与真实误差一致,适合主动学习和评估预测置信度。

在自然灾害下建模高维、非线性的动态结构系统面临巨大计算挑战,尤其当需同时考虑外部荷载和结构参数的不确定性时。已有研究成功处理了自然灾变荷载的不确定性,但很少同时涵盖荷载与参数不确定性,并考虑神经网络的预测不确定性。为此,提出了三种元模型框架:分别将多层感知机(MLP)、消息传递神经网络(MPNN)或自编码器(AE)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)结合,采用蒙特卡洛丢弃和负对数似然损失。所提架构(MLP-LSTM、MPNN-LSTM、AE-LSTM)在两个案例中验证:多自由度Bouc-Wen系统和37层纤维离散化非线性钢框架,均受随机地震激励和参数不确定性影响。所有方法均实现低预测误差:在低维的Bouc-Wen系统中MLP-LSTM最准确;在更复杂的钢框架中MPNN-LSTM和AE-LSTM表现更优。此外,预测方差与实际误差保持一致,表明这些框架适用于主动学习策略,并可用于评估结构响应预测的模型置信度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modeling high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamic structural systems under natural hazards presents formidable computational challenges, especially when simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in external loads and structural parameters. Studies have successfully incorporated uncertainties related to external loads from natural hazards, but few have simultaneously addressed loading and parameter uncertainties within structural systems while accounting for prediction uncertainty of neural networks. To address these gaps, three metamodeling frameworks were formulated, each coupling a feature-extraction module implemented through a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a message-passing neural network (MPNN), or an autoencoder (AE) with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network using Monte Carlo dropout and a negative log-likelihood loss. The resulting architectures (MLP-LSTM, MPNN-LSTM, and AE-LSTM) were validated on two case studies: a multi-degree-of-freedom Bouc-Wen system and a 37-story fiber-discretized nonlinear steel moment-resisting frame, both subjected to stochastic seismic excitation and structural parameter uncertainty. All three approaches achieved low prediction errors: the MLP-LSTM yielded the most accurate results for the lower-dimensional Bouc-Wen system, whereas the MPNN-LSTM and AE-LSTM provided superior performance on the more complex steel-frame model. Moreover, a consistent correlation between predictive variance and actual error confirms the suitability of these frameworks for active-learning strategies and for assessing model confidence in structural response predictions.

结构动力学不确定性量化深度学习元模型

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