arXiv:2603.12340eess.SYcs.AI2026-03

用强化学习动态调整任务完成时间公告,减少无效更新且保持准确

Optimizing Task Completion Time Updates Using POMDPs

  • 将公告更新建模为部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程,根据观测信息决定何时修改承诺时间
  • 仿真显示可减少75%的非必要更新,同时保持或提升预测准确性
  • 适合项目管理中需频繁沟通进度的团队,尤其关注信任与稳定性的场景

管理已宣布的任务完成时间是项目管理中的核心控制问题。尽管已有大量研究聚焦任务时长估计与调度,但何时以及如何向利益相关方更新完成时间仍缺乏系统方法。组织需在公告准确性与频繁更新带来的信任损耗和重规划成本之间权衡。现有方法多依赖静态预测或临时策略,未能考虑公告管理的序列特性。本文将任务公告问题建模为部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP),控制策略基于对真实完成时间的噪声观测,决定是否更新公告。由于多数状态变量(当前时间、历史公告)完全可观测,我们采用混合可观测马尔可夫决策过程(MOMDP)框架以提升求解效率。奖励函数同时包含公告误差与更新频率的成本,从而生成最优公告控制策略。使用现成求解器得到的策略可作为反馈控制器,根据信念状态演化自适应管理公告。模拟结果表明,相比基线策略,该方法在准确性和公告稳定性上均有显著提升,最多可减少75%的非必要更新,同时维持或改善预测精度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Managing announced task completion times is a fundamental control problem in project management. While extensive research exists on estimating task durations and task scheduling, the problem of when and how to update completion times communicated to stakeholders remains understudied. Organizations must balance announcement accuracy against the costs of frequent timeline updates, which can erode stakeholder trust and trigger costly replanning. Despite the prevalence of this problem, current approaches rely on static predictions or ad-hoc policies that fail to account for the sequential nature of announcement management. In this paper, we formulate the task announcement problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) where the control policy must decide when to update announced completion times based on noisy observations of true task completion. Since most state variables (current time and previous announcements) are fully observable, we leverage the Mixed Observability MDP (MOMDP) framework to enable more efficient policy optimization. Our reward structure captures the dual costs of announcement errors and update frequency, enabling synthesis of optimal announcement control policies. Using off-the-shelf solvers, we generate policies that act as feedback controllers, adaptively managing announcements based on belief state evolution. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in both accuracy and announcement stability compared to baseline strategies, achieving up to 75\% reduction in unnecessary updates while maintaining or improving prediction accuracy.

项目管理强化学习动态更新决策优化

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