提出新型模型NeST-S6,高效预测移动网络交通网格变化。
Spatial PDE-aware Selective State-space with Nested Memory for Mobile Traffic Grid Forecasting
- 用空间偏微分方程感知的卷积状态空间模型,结合嵌套记忆机制。
- 在三个分辨率下优于基线模型,6步预测误差更低,抗漂移能力提升48%-65%。
- 适合大规模实时交通预测,推理速度比同类模型快32倍。
蜂窝网络中的交通预测是具有强时序依赖性、小区间空间异质性且需适应大规模部署的复杂时空预测问题。传统单小区模型训练维护成本高,全局模型难以捕捉空间动态差异。基于注意力或图神经网络的近期架构虽提升精度,但计算开销大,限制了其在大规模或实时场景的应用。本文研究时空网格预测任务,每个时间步为二维交通值阵列,通过历史块预测下一网格块。提出NeST-S6:一种具有空间偏微分方程感知核心的卷积选择性状态空间模型(SSM),采用嵌套学习范式——局部卷积空间混合输入至空间PDE感知的SSM核心,同时通过学习型优化器根据单步预测误差更新嵌套长期记忆。在米兰移动交通网格数据集(三种分辨率:202, 502, 1002)上,NeST-S6在单步与6步自回归推演中均低于强基线Mamba家族模型。在漂移压力测试下,嵌套记忆使MAE降低48%-65%。相比竞争性逐像素扫描模型,全网格重建提速32倍,乘加操作减少4.3倍,且每像素RMSE降低61%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traffic forecasting in cellular networks is a challenging spatiotemporal prediction problem due to strong temporal dependencies, spatial heterogeneity across cells, and the need for scalability to large network deployments. Traditional cell-specific models incur prohibitive training and maintenance costs, while global models often fail to capture heterogeneous spatial dynamics. Recent spatiotemporal architectures based on attention or graph neural networks improve accuracy but introduce high computational overhead, limiting their applicability in large-scale or real-time settings. We study spatiotemporal grid forecasting, where each time step is a 2D lattice of traffic values, and predict the next grid patch using previous patches. We propose NeST-S6, a convolutional selective state-space model (SSM) with a spatial PDE-aware core, implemented in a nested learning paradigm: convolutional local spatial mixing feeds a spatial PDE-aware SSM core, while a nested-learning long-term memory is updated by a learned optimizer when one-step prediction errors indicate unmodeled dynamics. On the mobile-traffic grid (Milan dataset) at three resolutions (202, 502, 1002), NeST-S6 attains lower errors than a strong Mamba-family baseline in both single-step and 6-step autoregressive rollouts. Under drift stress tests, our model's nested memory lowers MAE by 48-65% over a no-memory ablation. NeST-S6 also speeds full-grid reconstruction by 32 times and reduces MACs by 4.3 times compared to competitive per-pixel scanning models, while achieving 61% lower per-pixel RMSE.
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