arXiv:2603.13049cs.LG2026-03

用物理约束生成台风三维结构,提升强度预报精度。

3DTCR: A Physics-Based Generative Framework for Vortex-Following 3D Reconstruction to Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

  • 结合物理规律与生成模型,实现自适应追踪涡旋的3D重建。
  • 5天内预报优于欧洲中期天气预报中心系统,最大风速误差降36.5%。
  • 适合气象预报、气候模拟等需要高精度台风结构的研究者。

热带气旋(TC)强度预报仍具挑战性,现有数值与人工智能气象模型难以准确表征极端TC结构与强度。尽管强度序列预报已取得显著进展,但仅输出时间序列,缺乏对台风内核精细三维结构及演化物理机制的刻画。高分辨率数值模拟虽可捕捉这些特征,但计算成本高昂,难以大规模业务应用。本文提出3DTCR,一种融合物理约束与生成式AI效率的物理驱动生成框架,用于3D TC结构重建。该框架在六年间、3公里分辨率的移动域WRF数据集上训练,采用条件流匹配(CFM)实现区域自适应涡旋追踪重建,通过潜在域适应与两阶段迁移学习优化。3DTCR克服了低分辨率目标与过平滑预报的限制,显著改善台风内核结构与强度表征,同时保持路径稳定性。结果表明,3DTCR在几乎所有提前期(长达5天)均优于欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率系统(ECMWF-HRES),且相对于其输入FuXi数据,最大10米风速(WS10M)均方根误差降低36.5%。研究显示,3DTCR是一种高效、低成本的物理驱动生成框架,可精准还原细尺度结构,为改进台风强度预报提供新途径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting remains challenging as current numerical and AI-based weather models fail to satisfactorily represent extreme TC structure and intensity. Although intensity time-series forecasting has achieved significant advances, it outputs intensity sequences rather than the three-dimensional inner-core fine-scale structure and physical mechanisms governing TC evolution. High-resolution numerical simulations can capture these features but remain computationally expensive and inefficient for large-scale operational applications. Here we present 3DTCR, a physics-based generative framework combining physical constraints with generative AI efficiency for 3D TC structure reconstruction. Trained on a six-year, 3-km-resolution moving-domain WRF dataset, 3DTCR enables region-adaptive vortex-following reconstruction using conditional Flow Matching(CFM), optimized via latent domain adaptation and two-stage transfer learning. The framework mitigates limitations imposed by low-resolution targets and over-smoothed forecasts, improving the representation of TC inner-core structure and intensity while maintaining track stability. Results demonstrate that 3DTCR outperforms the ECMWF high-resolution forecasting system (ECMWF-HRES) in TC intensity prediction at nearly all lead times up to 5 days and reduces the RMSE of maximum WS10M by 36.5% relative to its FuXi inputs. These findings highlight 3DTCR as a physics-based generative framework that efficiently resolves fine-scale structures at lower computational cost, which may offer a promising avenue for improving TC intensity forecasting.

台风预报生成模型物理信息

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