arXiv:2603.13589cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

用三维雷达数据直接建模分层运动,提升降水短时预报精度。

Assessing the Utility of Volumetric Motion Fields for Radar-based Precipitation Nowcasting with Physics-informed Deep Learning

  • 基于物理约束的深度学习框架,从三维雷达数据中估计各高度层水平运动场。
  • 多层运动高度相关性高,相比二维方法提升有限。
  • 适合研究垂直一致性强的降水系统,对高效时空外推模型设计有参考价值。

从时空地理科学数据中估计运动是众多环境建模与预测任务的核心。本文提出一种物理信息深度学习框架,直接从三维雷达反射率数据中估计分层运动场。该模型采用全可微分的半拉格朗日外推算子,将三维输入作为独立水平切片序列处理,实现多高度层水平运动的高效推断。利用中欧多年雷达数据集,评估了分层运动估计对基于外推的降水预报影响,并系统分析了不同高度层间运动的一致性。结果表明,估计的运动场在垂直方向具有强一致性,各层间相关性高,因此在此设置下相较于传统二维方法改进有限。所提框架为高效分析三维地理空间数据中的运动结构提供了通用工具。研究发现,在以垂直一致降水系统为主的区域,增加三维运动建模的复杂性可能带来的收益有限,需谨慎权衡高效时空平流模型的设计。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimating motion from spatiotemporal geoscientific data is a fundamental component of many environmental modeling and forecasting tasks. In this work, we propose a physics-informed deep learning framework for estimating altitude-wise motion fields directly from volumetric radar reflectivity data. The model utilizes a fully differentiable semi-Lagrangian extrapolation operator to process three-dimensional inputs as independent horizontal slice sequences, enabling efficient inference of horizontal motion across multiple altitude levels. Using a multi-year radar dataset from Central Europe, we evaluate the impact of altitude-wise motion estimation on extrapolation-based precipitation forecasting and conduct a systematic dataset-scale analysis of inter-altitude motion consistency. The results show that the estimated motion fields exhibit strong vertical coherence, with high correlation across altitude levels, which results in limited improvement over traditional two-dimensional approach in this setting. The proposed framework provides a general tool for efficiently analyzing motion structure in volumetric geospatial data. The findings indicate that, in regions dominated by vertically coherent precipitation systems, the added complexity of volumetric motion modeling may offer limited benefit, warranting careful consideration in the design of efficient spatiotemporal advection models.

降水预报三维运动物理信息网络雷达数据

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。