提出网格化需求表示与统计验证的时序输入设计方法,提升电动滑板车需求预测精度。
A Grid-Based Framework for E-Scooter Demand Representation and Temporal Input Design for Deep Learning: Evidence from Austin, Texas
- 将行程数据转为网格化时空需求图像,构建可复现的数据处理流程。
- 通过相关性与误差联合分析,确定最优历史输入深度,提升预测准确率37%以上。
- 适合城市交通规划、共享出行系统优化等研究者参考。
尽管深度学习在共享微出行需求预测中取得进展,但时序输入结构的系统化设计与统计验证仍不充分。当前时序特征多凭经验选择,而历史需求对模型性能与泛化能力影响显著。本文基于德克萨斯州奥斯汀市的大规模电动滑板车数据,提出一种可复现的数据处理流程,构建基于网格的时空数据集:将行程记录转换为每小时的取还车需求图像。该流程包括行程过滤、将人口普查区映射至空间位置、网格构建、需求聚合及全局活动掩码生成,仅在历史上活跃区域进行评估,保障空间学习一致性并保留需求模式。随后引入结合相关性与误差的联合方法,识别有效历史输入。采用基础UNet模型,通过消融实验、非参数检验与霍尔姆校正,确定最优时序深度。结果表明,所设计的时序结构能捕捉短期持续性及日/周周期特征。相比相邻小时和固定周期基线,新方法在下一小时预测中降低均方误差达37%,24小时预测降低35%。研究凸显了严谨数据构建与统计验证的时序输入设计在时空出行需求预测中的价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Despite progress in deep learning for shared micromobility demand prediction, the systematic design and statistical validation of temporal input structures remain underexplored. Temporal features are often selected heuristically, even though historical demand strongly affects model performance and generalizability. This paper introduces a reproducible data-processing pipeline and a statistically grounded method for designing temporal input structures for image-to-image demand prediction. Using large-scale e-scooter data from Austin, Texas, we build a grid-based spatiotemporal dataset by converting trip records into hourly pickup and dropoff demand images. The pipeline includes trip filtering, mapping Census Tracts to spatial locations, grid construction, demand aggregation, and creation of a global activity mask that limits evaluation to historically active areas. This representation supports consistent spatial learning while preserving demand patterns. We then introduce a combined correlation- and error-based procedure to identify informative historical inputs. Optimal temporal depth is selected through an ablation study using a baseline UNET model with paired non-parametric tests and Holm correction. The resulting temporal structures capture short-term persistence as well as daily and weekly cycles. Compared with adjacent-hour and fixed-period baselines, the proposed design reduces mean squared error by up to 37 percent for next-hour prediction and 35 percent for next-24-hour prediction. These results highlight the value of principled dataset construction and statistically validated temporal input design for spatiotemporal micromobility demand prediction.
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