提出气象特征分组的高效分词方法,提升极端降水预测精度
MeTok: An Efficient Meteorological Tokenization with Hyper-Aligned Group Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting
- 以气象特征相似性分组替代位置中心分词,实现分布聚焦建模
- 在ERA5数据集6小时预报中,极端降水预测IoU提升至少8.2%
- 适合需要高精度短期降水预报的研究者与业务系统
基于Transformer的气象预测模型虽有进展,但其依赖位置信息的分词方式与气象系统中多要素协同的本质相悖。本文聚焦降水短时预报,提出一种高效的分布中心型气象分词(MeTok)方案,通过空间分组聚合相似气象特征。在此基础上,引入超对齐分组变换器(HyAGTransformer),包含两项改进:1)分组注意力机制利用MeTok实现不同降水模式特征的自对齐学习;2)邻域前馈网络融合相邻组特征,增强补丁嵌入的判别能力。在ERA5数据集上的6小时预报实验表明,该方法在极端降水预测中IoU指标较其他方法至少提升8.2%。且随着训练数据和参数增加,性能持续提升,展现出良好的可扩展性、稳定性与优越性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recently, Transformer-based architectures have advanced meteorological prediction. However, this position-centric tokenizer conflicts with the core principle of meteorological systems, where the weather phenomena undoubtedly involve synergistic interactions among multiple elements while positional information constitutes merely a component of the boundary conditions. This paper focuses primarily on the task of precipitation nowcasting and develops an efficient distribution-centric Meteorological Tokenization (MeTok) scheme, which spatially sequences to group similar meteorological features. Based on the rearrangement, realigned group learning enhances robustness across precipitation patterns, especially extreme ones. Specifically, we introduce the Hyper-Aligned Grouping Transformer (HyAGTransformer) with two key improvements: 1) The Grouping Attention (GA) mechanism uses MeTok to enable self-aligned learning of features from different precipitation patterns; 2) The Neighborhood Feed-Forward Network (N-FFN) integrates adjacent group features, aggregating contextual information to boost patch embedding discriminability. Experiments on the ERA5 dataset for 6-hour forecasts show our method improves the IoU metric by at least 8.2% in extreme precipitation prediction compared to other methods. Additionally, it gains performance with more training data and increased parameters, demonstrating scalability, stability, and superiority over traditional methods.
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