arXiv:2603.14143cs.LG2026-03被引 1

用多保真度模型加速高温气冷堆失冷事故模拟,提升效率且保持高精度。

Multifidelity Surrogate Modeling of Depressurized Loss of Forced Cooling in High-temperature Gas Reactors

  • 融合高低保真度仿真数据,构建机器学习代理模型降低计算成本。
  • 基于敏感性分析筛选关键变量后,模型预测准确率显著提升。
  • 多保真度高斯过程表现最稳健,神经网络训练更快且精度相当。

高保真度计算流体动力学(CFD)模拟广泛用于核反应堆瞬态分析,但在大参数空间探索中计算成本高昂。多保真度代理模型通过融合不同分辨率仿真的信息,提供降低成本的途径。本文评估了多种多保真度机器学习方法,用于预测高温气冷堆(HTGR)降压失冷瞬态中自然循环启动时间(ONC)及启动后温度。在Ansys Fluent中构建CFD模型,生成每种保真度下1000个仿真样本,低、中保真度数据通过系统性粗化高保真度网格获得。研究考察了多保真度高斯过程与多种神经网络架构,并在解析基准函数上验证后应用于ONC数据集。结果表明,模型性能高度依赖输入变量的信息量及保真度层级间的关系。基于敏感性分析识别的关键输入变量训练的模型,始终优于使用全输入集的模型。低-高保真度组合表现优于含中保真度的配置,且两保真度方案在等计算成本下通常达到或超越三保真度方案。多保真度高斯过程在各类输入配置下均表现出最稳健的性能,对ONC时间与启动后温度的预测指标优异;神经网络方法则以显著更低的训练时间达到相近精度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are widely used to analyze nuclear reactor transients, but are computationally expensive when exploring large parameter spaces. Multifidelity surrogate models offer an approach to reduce cost by combining information from simulations of varying resolution. In this work, several multifidelity machine learning methods were evaluated for predicting the time to onset of natural circulation (ONC) and the temperature after ONC for a high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) depressurized loss of forced cooling transient. A CFD model was developed in Ansys Fluent to generate 1000 simulation samples at each fidelity level, with low and medium-fidelity datasets produced by systematically coarsening the high-fidelity mesh. Multiple surrogate approaches were investigated, including multifidelity Gaussian processes and several neural network architectures, and validated on analytical benchmark functions before application to the ONC dataset. The results show that performance depends strongly on the informativeness of the input variables and the relationship between fidelity levels. Models trained using dominant inputs identified through prior sensitivity analysis consistently outperformed models trained on the full input set. The low- and high-fidelity pairing produced stronger performance than configurations involving medium-fidelity data, and two-fidelity configurations generally matched or exceeded three-fidelity counterparts at equivalent computational cost. Among the methods evaluated, multifidelity GP provided the most robust performance across input configurations, achieving excellent metrics for both time to ONC and temperature after ONC, while neural network approaches achieved comparable accuracy with substantially lower training times.

多保真度建模核反应堆仿真机器学习代理高斯过程

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