arXiv:2603.14313cs.CL2026-03

用大模型捕捉美联储声明中政策立场的连续变化,比传统方法更准。

Mind the Shift: Decoding Monetary Policy Stance from FOMC Statements with Large Language Models

  • 基于大模型表示,同时学习绝对立场和会议间变化趋势。
  • 无需人工标注,在句子级别达到71.1%分类准确率。
  • 适合关注货币政策分析与金融时序信号建模的研究者。

美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)声明是货币政策信息的重要来源,其措辞微小变化即可影响全球金融市场。关键任务是量化声明中传达的鹰派-鸽派立场。现有方法通常将立场检测视为独立分类问题,仅依赖静态标签。但政策沟通的解读本质上是相对的:市场反应不仅取决于当前语气,还取决于会议间的演变。本文提出无标注的Delta-一致评分(DCS)框架,通过联合建模绝对立场与连续会议间的相对变化,将冻结的大语言模型(LLM)表示映射为连续立场分数。利用连续会议作为自监督信号,学习每份声明的绝对得分及相邻会议间的相对变化得分,并通过一个增量一致性目标使绝对得分的变化与相对变化对齐。该方法无需人工标注即可恢复时间连贯的立场轨迹。在四种LLM主干上,DCS均优于有监督探测器和LLM-as-judge基线,在句子级鹰鸽分类上最高达71.1%准确率。生成的会议级得分与通胀指标强相关,且显著关联国债收益率变动,表明大模型表示中蕴含可被相对时序结构挖掘的货币政策信号。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements are a major source of monetary-policy information, and even subtle changes in their wording can move global financial markets. A central task is therefore to measure the hawkish--dovish stance conveyed in these texts. Existing approaches typically treat stance detection as a standard classification problem, labeling each statement in isolation. However, the interpretation of monetary-policy communication is inherently relative: market reactions depend not only on the tone of a statement, but also on how that tone shifts across meetings. We introduce Delta-Consistent Scoring (DCS), an annotation-free framework that maps frozen large language model (LLM) representations to continuous stance scores by jointly modeling absolute stance and relative inter-meeting shifts. Rather than relying on manual hawkish--dovish labels, DCS uses consecutive meetings as a source of self-supervision. It learns an absolute stance score for each statement and a relative shift score between consecutive statements. A delta-consistency objective encourages changes in absolute scores to align with the relative shifts. This allows DCS to recover a temporally coherent stance trajectory without manual labels. Across four LLM backbones, DCS consistently outperforms supervised probes and LLM-as-judge baselines, achieving up to 71.1% accuracy on sentence-level hawkish--dovish classification. The resulting meeting-level scores are also economically meaningful: they correlate strongly with inflation indicators and are significantly associated with Treasury yield movements. Overall, the results suggest that LLM representations encode monetary-policy signals that can be recovered through relative temporal structure.

货币政策大模型应用时序分析

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