提出可处理复杂设计的精确贝叶斯分段框架,支持不规则观测与多序列共享边界。
Generalized Hierarchical Bayesian Segmentation with Irregular Designs, Multi-Sequence Hierarchies, and Grouped/Latent-Group Designs

- 模块化设计分离局部评分与全局推断,实现精确后验计算
- 支持非共轭广义线性模型的确定性近似,误差可控且稳定
- 适用于地质、基因组、金融等多领域真实数据,适合需要不确定性建模的研究者
贝叶斯变点与分段模型能提供有序数据的不确定性感知分段表示,但精确推断通常受限于特定似然类别、单序列或均匀索引设计。本文提出 exttt{BayesBreak},一个模块化的离线贝叶斯分段框架:将局部块评分与全局推断分离,每个候选块提供边际似然及所需矩分子,动态规划结合这些得分以计算段数、边界和隐信号的后验分布。对于带共轭先验的加权指数族似然,块证据与后验矩可通过累积充分统计量闭式求得,实现对 $p(yigm| k)$、$p(kigm| y)$、边界边缘分布及贝叶斯回归曲线的精确求和-乘积推断。区分了这些摘要与联合MAP分段(通过独立最大-求和递归恢复)。该框架支持设计感知的分区先验以处理不规则观测,实现跨重复样本的精确池化,以及具有精确EM更新的潜模板混合。对于非共轭广义线性模型块,动态规划层可采用拉普拉斯、变分法、期望传播或数值积分等确定性局部近似。我们证明后验比稳定性界:每块对数证据误差 $\ϵ\$ 最多使 $k$-比与边界比扰动 $(k+k')\ϵ$ 和 $2k\ϵ$。验证包括合成数据恢复、校准与扩展性实验,以及四个真实数据案例:井孔地质、array-CGH拷贝数、股票收益波动率与CpG图谱甲基化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bayesian change-point and segmentation models provide uncertainty-aware piecewise-constant representations of ordered data, but exact inference is often limited to narrow likelihood classes, single sequences, or index-uniform designs. We present \texttt{BayesBreak}, a modular offline Bayesian segmentation framework that separates local block scoring from global inference: each candidate block supplies a marginal likelihood and any needed moment numerators, while a dynamic program combines these scores to compute posteriors over segment counts, boundaries, and latent signals. For weighted exponential-family likelihoods with conjugate priors, block evidences and posterior moments are available in closed form from cumulative sufficient statistics, enabling exact sum-product inference for $p(y\mid k)$, $p(k\mid y)$, boundary marginals, and Bayes regression curves. We distinguish these summaries from the \emph{joint} MAP segmentation, recovered by a separate max-sum recursion. BayesBreak supports design-aware partition priors for irregular observations, exact pooling across replicates with shared boundaries, and latent-template mixtures with exact EM updates. For non-conjugate GLM blocks, the same DP layer can use deterministic local approximations such as Laplace, variational methods, EP, or quadrature. We prove a posterior-odds stability bound: uniform per-block log-evidence error $\varepsilon$ perturbs $k$-odds and boundary-odds by at most $(k+k')\varepsilon$ and $2k\varepsilon$. Validation includes synthetic recovery, calibration, and scaling experiments, plus four real-data illustrations: well-log geology, array-CGH copy number, equity-return volatility, and CpG-atlas methylation.
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