arXiv:2603.14793cs.LG2026-03

用波动率动态调整模糊系统参数,提升金融时序多步预测精度。

GARCH-FIS: A Hybrid Forecasting Model with Dynamic Volatility-Driven Parameter Adaptation

  • 基于滚动GARCH估计波动率,动态调节模糊推理系统的参数
  • 在10种金融资产上,多步预测误差显著低于SVR、LSTM等模型
  • 自动构建模糊规则,适合需要稳定高精度预测的量化交易场景

本文提出一种新型混合模型GARCH-FIS,用于金融时间序列的递归滚动多步预测。该模型将模糊推理系统(FIS)与广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型结合,共同处理非线性动态和时变波动率。核心创新在于在多步预测循环中引入动态参数自适应机制:通过滚动窗口GARCH模型持续估算条件波动率,并将其转化为价格波动度量;每一步预测中,该度量与滑动窗口数据最新均值(包含最新预测价格)共同决定下一预测的FIS隶属函数参数。因此,模糊推理的粒度随预测时长动态调整——高波动时期自动放宽隶属函数以增强鲁棒性,平稳期则收紧以提高精度。相比静态单步预测,这是根本性改进。此外,模糊规则库通过Wang-Mendel方法从数据自动构建,提升了可解释性与适应性。实证评估聚焦于10种不同金融资产的多步预测性能,结果表明GARCH-FIS在预测准确性和稳定性上显著优于支持向量回归(SVR)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)及ARIMA-GARCH经济计量模型,有效缓解了长期递归预测中的误差累积问题。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, termed GARCH-FIS, for recursive rolling multi-step forecasting of financial time series. It integrates a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to jointly address nonlinear dynamics and time-varying volatility. The core innovation is a dynamic parameter adaptation mechanism for the FIS, specifically activated within the multi-step forecasting cycle. In this process, the conditional volatility estimated by a rolling window GARCH model is continuously translated into a price volatility measure. At each forecasting step, this measure, alongside the updated mean of the sliding window data -- which now incorporates the most recent predicted price -- jointly determines the parameters of the FIS membership functions for the next prediction. Consequently, the granularity of the fuzzy inference adapts as the forecast horizon extends: membership functions are automatically widened during high-volatility market regimes to bolster robustness and narrowed during stable periods to enhance precision. This constitutes a fundamental advancement over a static one-step-ahead prediction setup. Furthermore, the model's fuzzy rule base is automatically constructed from data using the Wang-Mendel method, promoting interpretability and adaptability. Empirical evaluation, focused exclusively on multi-step forecasting performance across ten diverse financial assets, demonstrates that the proposed GARCH-FIS model significantly outperforms benchmark models -- including Support Vector Regression(SVR), Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTM), and an ARIMA-GARCH econometric model -- in terms of predictive accuracy and stability, while effectively mitigating error accumulation in extended recursive forecasts.

时间序列预测波动率建模模糊系统金融预测

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