将车祸预测从二元判断转为实时安全评分,提升驾驶干预精准度。
Real-Time Driver Safety Scoring Through Inverse Crash Probability Modeling
- 通过逆向建模将二元撞车模型转化为0-100连续安全分。
- 87%事故由多重风险因素共现引发,风险叠加可达基线4.5倍。
- 适用于ADAS、车队管理,且可通用到其他领域无需重新训练。
道路碰撞仍是可预防死亡的主要原因。现有预测模型多为二元输出,难以提供实时驾驶反馈的行动指导,普遍缺乏连续风险量化、可解释性以及对行人、骑行者等弱势道路使用者(VRUs)的显式考虑。本研究提出SafeDriver-IQ框架,通过融合国家碰撞统计数据与自动驾驶车辆的自然驾驶数据,将二元碰撞分类器转化为0-100连续安全评分。该框架结合美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)碰撞记录与Waymo Open Motion Dataset场景,工程化领域相关特征,并引入基于交通安全部门文献的校准层。15项互补分析表明,该框架能可靠区分高风险与低风险驾驶状况,具备强判别性能。研究进一步发现,87%的碰撞涉及多个共现风险因素,其非线性叠加使风险增至基线的4.5倍。SafeDriver-IQ提供前瞻性、可解释的安全智能,适用于高级驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)、车队管理及城市基础设施规划。该逆向建模范式具有领域无关性,任何二元风险分类器均可通过相同流程转换为连续可解释的安全评分系统,无需重新训练。该框架推动风险防控从被动统计转向实时预防。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Road crashes remain a leading cause of preventable fatalities. Existing prediction models predominantly produce binary outcomes, which offer limited actionable insights for real-time driver feedback. These approaches often lack continuous risk quantification, interpretability, and explicit consideration of vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and cyclists. This research introduces SafeDriver-IQ, a framework that transforms binary crash classifiers into continuous 0-100 safety scores by combining national crash statistics with naturalistic driving data from autonomous vehicles. The framework fuses National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) crash records with Waymo Open Motion Dataset scenarios, engineers domain-informed features, and incorporates a calibration layer grounded in transportation safety literature. Evaluation across 15 complementary analyses indicates that the framework reliably differentiates high-risk from low-risk driving conditions with strong discriminative performance. Findings further reveal that 87% of crashes involve multiple co-occurring risk factors, with non-linear compounding effects that increase the risk to 4.5x baseline. SafeDriver-IQ delivers proactive, explainable safety intelligence relevant to advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), fleet management, and urban infrastructure planning. Beyond the specific application, the inverse modeling paradigm is domain-agnostic. Any binary risk classifier can be converted into a continuous, explainable safety-scoring system using the same pipeline without retraining. This framework shifts the focus from reactive crash counting to real-time risk prevention.
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