arXiv:2603.14907cond-mat.dis-nncs.LG2026-03被引 1

用机器学习提升地下能源项目决策可靠性,兼顾物理规律与不确定性。

Machine learning for sustainable geoenergy: uncertainty, physics and decision-ready inference

  • 融合物理模型与机器学习,实现多尺度地质过程建模。
  • 将不确定性作为核心输出,支撑风险可控的工程决策。
  • 适合能源规划、环境监管及碳中和政策制定者参考。

地下能源项目(如二氧化碳封存、地热能、地下氢能生成/储存、深部流体提取关键矿物或核废料处置)正沿石油行业模式经历从筛选评估到运行监测与长期管理的全过程。在此过程中,受限且异质的观测数据需在强物理与地质约束下转化为具有风险边界的运营决策,直接影响部署速度、资本成本及气候缓解可信度。这些决策本质是多目标权衡,需兼顾性能、封存能力、压力范围、诱发地震、能源/水耗以及长期管理。当前进展受制于四大瓶颈:(i) 标签稀缺且有偏,现场性能数据少;(ii) 不确定性被当作附加项而非核心交付物;(iii) 微孔至盆地尺度的跨尺度耦合建模薄弱(含化学-流动-地质力学耦合);(iv) 面向监管机构的部署缺乏质量保障、可审计性和治理机制。本文提出匹配现实的机器学习方法:混合物理-机器学习、概率不确定性量化(UQ)、结构感知表征、多保真度/持续学习,并关联四大核心应用:成像到过程的数字孪生、多相流与近井地带适应性、监测与反问题(包括变形与微震监测,即MMV)、盆地尺度组合管理。最后提出务实议程,包括基准测试、验证标准、报告规范与政策支持,以实现可持续地下能源中可复现且可辩护的机器学习应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Geoenergy projects (CO2 storage, geothermal, subsurface H2 generation/storage, critical minerals from subsurface fluids, or nuclear waste disposal) increasingly follow a petroleum-style funnel from screening and appraisal to operations, monitoring, and stewardship. Across this funnel, limited and heterogeneous observations must be turned into risk-bounded operational choices under strong physical and geological constraints - choices that control deployment rate, cost of capital, and the credibility of climate-mitigation claims. These choices are inherently multi-objective, balancing performance against containment, pressure footprint, induced seismicity, energy/water intensity, and long-term stewardship. We argue that progress is limited by four recurring bottlenecks: (i) scarce, biased labels and few field performance outcomes; (ii) uncertainty treated as an afterthought rather than the deliverable; (iii) weak scale-bridging from pore to basin (including coupled chemical-flow-geomechanics); and (iv) insufficient quality assurance (QA), auditability, and governance for regulator-facing deployment. We outline machine learning (ML) approaches that match these realities (hybrid physics-ML, probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), structure-aware representations, and multi-fidelity/continual learning) and connect them to four anchor applications: imaging-to-process digital twins, multiphase flow and near-well conformance, monitoring and inverse problems (monitoring, measurement, and verification (MMV), including deformation and microseismicity), and basin-scale portfolio management. We close with a pragmatic agenda for benchmarks, validation, reporting standards, and policy support needed for reproducible and defensible ML in sustainable geoenergy.

机器学习地质能源不确定性量化数字孪生

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