用智能体生成气象先验,让天气预报更准更稳定。
AGCD: Agent-Guided Cross-Modal Decoding for Weather Forecasting
- 用多智能体解析大气状态,生成动态气象先验
- 在解码阶段注入先验,6小时预报误差降低显著
- 适配多种模型和分辨率,尤其适合长期滚动预报
精准天气预报不仅需逐格点回归,还需保持气象场的结构连贯性与物理一致性,尤其在自回归滚动预测中,微小一步误差可能引发结构偏差。现有物理先验方法通常通过架构、正则化或与数值天气预报(NWP)耦合施加全局约束,缺乏部署时的状态自适应与样本特异性控制能力。为此,我们提出代理引导跨模态解码(AGCD),一种可插拔的解码阶段先验注入范式,从当前多变量大气状态中提取状态相关的物理先验,并以可控、可复用方式注入预报器。具体地,设计多智能体气象叙述管道,利用多模态大模型(MLLMs)有效提取多种气象要素;为高效应用先验,AGCD进一步引入跨模态区域交互解码,实现区域感知的多尺度标记化及高效先验注入,无需修改骨干接口即可优化视觉特征。在WeatherBench上的实验表明,该方法在两种分辨率(5.625度和1.40625度)及多种骨干网络(通用与气象专用)上均实现6小时预报的一致提升,包括严格因果的48小时自回归滚动预测,有效减少早期误差积累,提升长时序稳定性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate weather forecasting is more than grid-wise regression: it must preserve coherent synoptic structures and physical consistency of meteorological fields, especially under autoregressive rollouts where small one-step errors can amplify into structural bias. Existing physics-priors approaches typically impose global, once-for-all constraints via architectures, regularization, or NWP coupling, offering limited state-adaptive and sample-specific controllability at deployment. To bridge this gap, we propose Agent-Guided Cross-modal Decoding (AGCD), a plug-and-play decoding-time prior-injection paradigm that derives state-conditioned physics-priors from the current multivariate atmosphere and injects them into forecasters in a controllable and reusable way. Specifically, We design a multi-agent meteorological narration pipeline to generate state-conditioned physics-priors, utilizing MLLMs to extract various meteorological elements effectively. To effectively apply the priors, AGCD further introduce cross-modal region interaction decoding that performs region-aware multi-scale tokenization and efficient physics-priors injection to refine visual features without changing the backbone interface. Experiments on WeatherBench demonstrate consistent gains for 6-hour forecasting across two resolutions (5.625 degree and 1.40625 degree) and diverse backbones (generic and weather-specialized), including strictly causal 48-hour autoregressive rollouts that reduce early-stage error accumulation and improve long-horizon stability.
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