arXiv:2603.15358cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

用神经网络端到端做全球天气分析与预报,精度超现有系统。

FuXiWeather2: Learning accurate atmospheric state estimation for operational global weather forecasting

  • 统一框架直接对观测和再分析数据训练,修正再分析误差。
  • 0.25度分辨率,10天预报分钟级完成,91%指标优于欧洲气象中心系统。
  • 适合需要快速响应极端天气的业务预报场景。

数值天气预报长期受限于数据同化与数值模拟的计算瓶颈。尽管机器学习加速了预报,但现有模型多为再分析产品的“代理”,保留系统性偏差和操作延迟。本文提出FuXiWeather2,一个统一的端到端神经框架,用于同化与预报。通过直接结合真实观测与再分析数据设定训练目标,使模型能有效纠正再分析产品中的固有误差。为解决训练时使用NWP背景输入与部署时自生成背景之间的分布偏移问题,引入递归展开训练方法,提升分析生成的精度与稳定性。此外,模型在原始与模拟观测混合数据集上训练,缓解观测分布不一致的影响。FuXiWeather2生成0.25°高分辨率全球分析场与10天预报,可在分钟内完成。分析场在多数变量上超越NCEP-GFS,且在低对流层与地表变量上优于ERA5与ECMWF-HRES系统。基于这些高质量分析的确定性预报,在91%评估指标上超过HRES系统性能。其在台风路径预测上的优异表现,凸显其在极端天气快速响应中的实际价值。分析数据集可访问:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18872728。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Numerical weather prediction has long been constrained by the computational bottlenecks inherent in data assimilation and numerical modeling. While machine learning has accelerated forecasting, existing models largely serve as "emulators of reanalysis products," thereby retaining their systematic biases and operational latencies. Here, we present FuXiWeather2, a unified end-to-end neural framework for assimilation and forecasting. We align training objectives directly with a combination of real-world observations and reanalysis data, enabling the framework to effectively rectify inherent errors within reanalysis products. To address the distribution shift between NWP-derived background inputs during training and self-generated backgrounds during deployment, we introduce a recursive unrolling training method to enhance the precision and stability of analysis generation. Furthermore, our model is trained on a hybrid dataset of raw and simulated observations to mitigate the impact of observational distribution inconsistency. FuXiWeather2 generates high-resolution ($0.25^{\circ}$) global analysis fields and 10-day forecasts within minutes. The analysis fields surpass the NCEP-GFS across most variables and demonstrate superior accuracy over both ERA5 and the ECMWF-HRES system in lower-tropospheric and surface variables. These high-quality analysis fields drive deterministic forecasts that exceed the skill of the HRES system in 91\% of evaluated metrics. Additionally, its outstanding performance in typhoon track prediction underscores its practical value for rapid response to extreme weather events. The FuXiWeather2 analysis dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18872728.

天气预报神经网络数据同化高分辨率

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