针对目标域缺失后期退化数据的剩余寿命预测难题,提出新方法提升跨域适应精度。
Evidential Domain Adaptation for Remaining Useful Life Prediction with Incomplete Degradation
- 按退化速率分阶段对齐源与目标域数据,实现精准阶段匹配。
- 引入证据学习估计不确定性,有效对齐不同工况下的退化特征分布。
- 特别适合处理退化轨迹不完整、缺乏晚期数据的实际设备故障预测场景。
在无标签目标域数据的情况下实现高精度剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测是一项关键挑战,领域自适应(DA)被广泛用于将标注的源域知识迁移到未标注的目标域。然而,现有方法在目标域退化轨迹不完整(尤其缺少晚期退化阶段)时表现不佳,面临显著的外推难题。当前方法存在两大局限:其一,多数方法仅关注全局对齐,易导致源域晚期与目标域早期退化阶段错配;其二,由于运行条件差异,同一退化阶段内的退化模式可能不同,导致学习到的特征不一致,即使阶段部分对齐,简单特征匹配也无法完全对齐两域。为克服上述问题,本文提出一种新颖的证据自适应方法EviAdapt,首先基于退化速率将源域和目标域数据划分为不同退化阶段,实现阶段内精准对齐;其次引入证据不确定性对齐技术,利用证据学习估计不确定性,并在对应阶段间对齐不确定性分布,从而提升模型鲁棒性与泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction without labeled target domain data is a critical challenge, and domain adaptation (DA) has been widely adopted to address it by transferring knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain. Despite its success, existing DA methods struggle significantly when faced with incomplete degradation trajectories in the target domain, particularly due to the absence of late degradation stages. This missing data introduces a key extrapolation challenge. When applied to such incomplete RUL prediction tasks, current DA methods encounter two primary limitations. First, most DA approaches primarily focus on global alignment, which can misaligns late degradation stage in the source domain with early degradation stage in the target domain. Second, due to varying operating conditions in RUL prediction, degradation patterns may differ even within the same degradation stage, resulting in different learned features. As a result, even if degradation stages are partially aligned, simple feature matching cannot fully align two domains. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel evidential adaptation approach called EviAdapt, which leverages evidential learning to enhance domain adaptation. The method first segments the source and target domain data into distinct degradation stages based on degradation rate, enabling stage-wise alignment that ensures samples from corresponding stages are accurately matched. To address the second limitation, we introduce an evidential uncertainty alignment technique that estimates uncertainty using evidential learning and aligns the uncertainty across matched stages.
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