arXiv:2603.15802cs.LG2026-03中稿 · and published in T…被引 1

让模型同时理解时间规律和外部变量,提升零样本预测准确率

Time-Aware Prior Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

  • 构建时间感知的先验网络,融合外部变量进行联合建模
  • 在多个含外部变量的数据集上超越现有基线模型表现
  • 适合需要利用促销、天气等外部信息的时序预测场景

在许多时间序列预测场景中,目标序列常伴随外生协变量,如零售需求中的促销与价格、能源负荷中的温度、交通或销售中的日历与节假日信号,以及电价中的电网负荷或燃料成本。忽略这些外生信号会显著降低预测精度,尤其在它们引发目标序列突变、不连续或状态切换时。当前大多数时间序列基础模型(如Chronos、Sundial、TimesFM、TimeMoE、TimeLLM、LagLlama)仅依赖数值历史序列进行预测,忽视外生变量,限制了性能。本文提出ApolloPFN,一种时间感知的先验数据拟合网络(PFN),能原生融合外生变量(区别于以往单变量模型),并引入两大创新:(i) 生成包含真实时间模式、结构变化及外生依赖关系的合成数据以构建先验;(ii) 设计时间感知的网络结构,嵌入时间上下文的归纳偏置。实验表明,ApolloPFN在多个含外生信息的基准数据集上优于现有方法,包括M5、电力价格预测、UCI空气质量与太阳能能源数据集。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing. Ignoring these exogenous signals can substantially degrade forecasting accuracy, particularly when they drive spikes, discontinuities, or regime and phase changes in the target series. Most current time series foundation models (e.g., Chronos, Sundial, TimesFM, TimeMoE, TimeLLM, and LagLlama) ignore exogenous covariates and make forecasts solely from the numerical time series history, thereby limiting their performance. In this paper, we develop ApolloPFN, a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that is time-aware (unlike prior PFNs) and that natively incorporates exogenous covariates (unlike prior univariate forecasters). Our design introduces two major advances: (i) a synthetic data generation framework that injects realistic temporal patterns, structural changes, and exogenous dependencies into the PFN prior; and (ii) time-aware architectural modifications that embed inductive biases needed to exploit temporal context. We demonstrate that ApolloPFN outperforms existing baselines across several forecasting benchmarks with exogenous information, including M5, electric price forecasting, UCI Air Quality, and Solar Energy datasets.

时间序列外生变量零样本预测先验网络

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