arXiv:2603.15932cs.CV2026-03

用扩散模型生成一年后肺结节影像,提前诊断肺癌风险

NAMD: Virtual Follow-up Computed Tomography Synthesis via Nodule-Aligned Multimodal Diffusion Models for Early Lung Cancer Diagnosis

  • 基于结节对齐的潜空间与多模态条件生成
  • 合成影像使恶性预测的AUC达0.805,优于现有方法
  • 适合临床需早期预警的肺结节患者群体

肺癌仍是全球癌症死亡主因,生存率高度依赖早期准确检测。当低剂量CT(LDCT)结果不确定时,临床通常需等待12个月内复查CT,导致恶性结节患者治疗延迟。为填补这一临床空白,本文提出结节对齐多模态(潜在)扩散模型(NAMD),基于基线CT、结节量化生物标志物及患者电子健康记录(EHR),生成一年后结节的虚拟随访CT图像,实现无需实际随访扫描即可及时预测结节恶性进展。NAMD引入两项关键创新:(i) 结节对齐的潜在空间,嵌入距离反映临床有意义的生物标志物变化;(ii) 基于大语言模型的多模态条件机制,将异构EHR数据编码至扩散模型中。在国家肺筛查试验(NLST)数据集上,该方法合成图像的恶性预测AUROC达0.805,AUPRC为0.346,优于无虚拟随访生成的基线表现及现有先进条件生成方法,同时保持良好图像质量。结果表明,NAMD可通过捕捉结节进展的临床特征,实现更早更准的肺癌诊断。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, with survival outcomes critically dependent on early and accurate detection. When low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) findings are indeterminate, clinicians typically defer diagnosis pending follow-up CT imaging obtained up to 12 months later, inevitably delaying treatment for patients with malignant nodules. To address this clinical gap, we propose Nodule-Aligned Multimodal (Latent) Diffusion (NAMD), a novel generative framework that synthesizes one-year follow-up nodule CT images conditioned on the baseline CT scan, quantitative nodule biomarkers, and patient-level Electronic Health Records (EHR), enabling timely prediction of nodule malignant progression without requiring actual follow-up scans. NAMD introduces two key contributions: (i) a nodule-aligned latent space regularized so that embedding distances reflect clinically meaningful biomarker changes, and (ii) an LLM-driven multimodal conditioning mechanism encoding heterogeneous EHR data into the diffusion backbone. Evaluated on the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), our method's synthetic follow-up images achieve an AUROC of 0.805 and an AUPRC of 0.346 for lung nodule malignancy prediction, outperforming both the baseline LDCT performance without virtual follow-up generation, and existing state-of-the-art conditional generation methods, while maintaining competitive image quality. These findings suggest that NAMD enables earlier and more accurate lung cancer diagnosis by capturing clinically meaningful features of nodule progression.

肺结节扩散模型虚拟随访癌症早诊

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