arXiv:2603.16313cs.AIcs.LG2026-03被引 1

用AI自动解析车辆故障代码序列,实现预测、发现因果关系和推理规则。

Learning to Predict, Discover, and Reason in High-Dimensional Event Sequences

  • 基于Transformer构建序列预测模型,处理上万级故障码
  • 开发可扩展的因果发现框架,识别高维事件间的深层关联
  • 多智能体系统自动生成布尔规则,适合汽车安全诊断场景

现代汽车中的电子控制单元产生大量异步事件,即诊断故障码(DTCs),形成反映系统状态演化的复杂时间序列。行业专家传统上通过布尔规则手动归纳故障模式(EPs)以保障安全,但随着车辆复杂度提升,该方法成本高、易出错且难扩展。一辆现代汽车中唯一的DTC数量与自然语言词汇量相当,可达数万级别。这一现象启发我们把诊断序列视为一种语言进行建模、预测与解释。传统统计方法无法捕捉丰富依赖关系,且难以应对数千节点、海量样本与长序列的高维数据。本文提出统一框架,融合事件序列建模、因果发现与大语言模型,分三阶段实现从预测到因果理解再到推理。为此,设计了面向预测维护的Transformer架构,开发支持样本级与群体级的可扩展因果发现方法,并构建多智能体系统自动合成布尔故障模式规则。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Electronic control units (ECUs) embedded within modern vehicles generate a large number of asynchronous events known as diagnostic trouble codes (DTCs). These discrete events form complex temporal sequences that reflect the evolving health of the vehicle's subsystems. In the automotive industry, domain experts manually group these codes into higher-level error patterns (EPs) using Boolean rules to characterize system faults and ensure safety. However, as vehicle complexity grows, this manual process becomes increasingly costly, error-prone, and difficult to scale. Notably, the number of unique DTCs in a modern vehicle is on the same order of magnitude as the vocabulary of a natural language, often numbering in the tens of thousands. This observation motivates a paradigm shift: treating diagnostic sequences as a language that can be modeled, predicted, and ultimately explained. Traditional statistical approaches fail to capture the rich dependencies and do not scale to high-dimensional datasets characterized by thousands of nodes, large sample sizes, and long sequence lengths. Specifically, the high cardinality of categorical event spaces in industrial logs poses a significant challenge, necessitating new machine learning architectures tailored to such event-driven systems. This thesis addresses automated fault diagnostics by unifying event sequence modeling, causal discovery, and large language models (LLMs) into a coherent framework for high-dimensional event streams. It is structured in three parts, reflecting a progressive transition from prediction to causal understanding and finally to reasoning for vehicle diagnostics. Consequently, we introduce several Transformer-based architectures for predictive maintenance, scalable sample- and population-level causal discovery frameworks and a multi-agent system that automates the synthesis of Boolean EP rules.

故障诊断事件序列因果发现大模型应用

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