918次实验对比9种模型,发现架构比参数量更重要。
A Controlled Comparison of Deep Learning Architectures for Multi-Horizon Financial Forecasting: Evidence from 918 Experiments
- 系统测试9种模型在多时序金融预测中的表现
- ModernTCN平均排名最高,75%时间拿第一
- 模型架构决定性能,随机性影响极小
多时序价格预测对投资组合配置、风险管理及算法交易至关重要,但深度学习架构的发展速度远超严谨金融基准的评估能力。本研究通过严格五阶段流程(固定种子贝叶斯调参、按资产类别配置冻结、多种子重训练、不确定性聚合与统计验证),在加密货币、外汇和股指市场中,对九种架构(Autoformer、DLinear、iTransformer、LSTM、ModernTCN、N-HiTS、PatchTST、TimesNet、TimeXer)在4小时和24小时预测窗口下的表现进行了受控比较。共完成918次实验。结果表明,ModernTCN平均排名最优(1.333),首名率高达75%,其次为PatchTST(2.000)。性能呈现清晰的三层结构,架构解释了几乎全部性能差异,而种子随机性可忽略不计。跨时窗表现稳定,尽管误差放大2至2.5倍。所有配置下方向准确率均接近50%,表明基于MSE训练的模型在小时级分辨率下缺乏方向预测能力。研究强调了架构先验偏置的重要性,为多步金融预测提供了可复现的指导。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multi-horizon price forecasting is central to portfolio allocation, risk management, and algorithmic trading, yet deep learning architectures have proliferated faster than rigorous financial benchmarks can evaluate them. This study provides a controlled comparison of nine architectures (Autoformer, DLinear, iTransformer, LSTM, ModernTCN, N-HiTS, PatchTST, TimesNet, and TimeXer) spanning Transformer, MLP, CNN, and RNN families across cryptocurrency, forex, and equity index markets at 4-hour and 24-hour horizons. A total of 918 experiments were conducted under a strict five-stage protocol including fixed-seed Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, configuration freezing per asset class, multi-seed retraining, uncertainty aggregation, and statistical validation. ModernTCN achieves the best mean rank (1.333) with a 75 percent first-place rate, followed by PatchTST (2.000). Results reveal a clear three-tier ranking structure and show that architecture explains nearly all performance variance, while seed randomness is negligible. Rankings remain stable across horizons despite 2 to 2.5 times error amplification. Directional accuracy remains near 50 percent across all configurations, indicating that MSE-trained models lack directional skill at hourly resolution. The findings highlight the importance of architectural inductive bias over raw parameter count and provide reproducible guidance for multi-step financial forecasting.
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