arXiv:2603.16937cs.LGstat.AP2026-03

用可解释模型+优化算法,为个人定制高效睡眠改善方案。

Integrating Explainable Machine Learning and Mixed-Integer Optimization for Personalized Sleep Quality Intervention

  • 结合可解释机器学习与整数规划,从预测到推荐全流程打通。
  • 测试F1达0.9544,能精准识别需调整的少数关键行为。
  • 输出简洁建议,常只提1-2个高影响调整,避免过度干预。

睡眠质量受行为、环境与心理社会因素复杂影响,现有计算研究多聚焦风险预测,缺乏可操作干预设计。本文提出个性化预测-决策框架,利用问卷数据训练分类器预测睡眠质量,通过SHAP方法量化可变因素的影响程度,并将其作为约束输入混合整数优化模型,识别最小且可行的行为调整方案,同时引入惩罚机制建模改变阻力。该框架在测试集上取得F1-score 0.9544与准确率0.9366。敏感性与帕累托分析显示,改善效果随调整数量增加而递减。个体层面,模型生成简明建议,常仅推荐一两个高影响力行为调整,或在预期收益低时建议无变化。该框架实现了从数据洞察到结构化决策支持的闭环。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Sleep quality is influenced by a complex interplay of behavioral, environmental, and psychosocial factors, yet most computational studies focus mainly on predictive risk identification rather than actionable intervention design. Although machine learning models can accurately predict subjective sleep outcomes, they rarely translate predictive insights into practical intervention strategies. To address this gap, we propose a personalized predictive-prescriptive framework that integrates interpretable machine learning with mixed-integer optimization. A supervised classifier trained on survey data predicts sleep quality, while SHAP-based feature attribution quantifies the influence of modifiable factors. These importance measures are incorporated into a mixed-integer optimization model that identifies minimal and feasible behavioral adjustments, while modelling resistance to change through a penalty mechanism. The framework achieves strong predictive performance, with a test F1-score of 0.9544 and an accuracy of 0.9366. Sensitivity and Pareto analyses reveal a clear trade-off between expected improvement and intervention intensity, with diminishing returns as additional changes are introduced. At the individual level, the model generates concise recommendations, often suggesting one or two high-impact behavioral adjustments and sometimes recommending no change when expected gains are minimal. By integrating prediction, explanation, and constrained optimization, this framework demonstrates how data-driven insights can be translated into structured and personalized decision support for sleep improvement.

睡眠干预可解释AI优化决策

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