arXiv:2603.17694cs.AI2026-03KDD被引 2

用大模型构建可跨领域模拟经济决策的智能沙盒,提升预测精度与稳定性。

MALLES: A Multi-agent LLMs-based Economic Sandbox with Consumer Preference Alignment

  • 基于多代理架构和偏好学习,让大模型理解跨品类消费者行为。
  • 在产品选择与购买量预测上显著优于现有基准,模拟更稳定。
  • 适合研究复杂经济系统、消费行为建模或企业决策支持的学者与从业者。

现实经济中,现代决策面临高维、多模态环境挑战,加之主体异质性与组合数据稀疏性。本文提出多代理大语言模型经济沙盒MALLES,利用大模型的泛化能力,建立适用于跨领域、跨品类场景的统一仿真框架。核心在于通过大规模异构交易记录对大模型进行后训练,实现其经济对齐,使其内化并迁移潜在的消费者偏好模式,缓解单个品类的数据稀疏问题。为增强仿真稳定性,引入均值场机制,建模产品环境与客户群体间的动态交互,有效稳定高维决策空间中的采样过程。进一步提出多代理讨论框架,由专业代理协作处理海量产品信息,通过结构化对话分担认知负荷,捕捉关键决策因素。实验表明,相比现有经济与金融大模型仿真基线,本框架在产品选择准确率、购买数量预测及仿真稳定性上均有显著提升。结果验证了大语言模型作为真实经济高保真、可扩展决策仿真与分析基础支柱的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In the real economy, modern decision-making is fundamentally challenged by high-dimensional, multimodal environments, which are further complicated by agent heterogeneity and combinatorial data sparsity. This paper introduces a Multi-Agent Large Language Model-based Economic Sandbox (MALLES), leveraging the inherent generalization capabilities of large-sacle models to establish a unified simulation framework applicable to cross-domain and cross-category scenarios. Central to our approach is a preference learning paradigm in which LLMs are economically aligned via post-training on extensive, heterogeneous transaction records across diverse product categories. This methodology enables the models to internalize and transfer latent consumer preference patterns, thereby mitigating the data sparsity issues prevalent in individual categories. To enhance simulation stability, we implement a mean-field mechanism designed to model the dynamic interactions between the product environment and customer populations, effectively stabilizing sampling processes within high-dimensional decision spaces. Furthermore, we propose a multi-agent discussion framework wherein specialized agents collaboratively process extensive product information. This architecture distributes cognitive load to alleviate single-agent attention bottlenecks and captures critical decision factors through structured dialogue. Experiments demonstrate that our framework achieves significant improvements in product selection accuracy, purchase quantity prediction, and simulation stability compared to existing economic and financial LLM simulation baselines. Our results substantiate the potential of large language models as a foundational pillar for high-fidelity, scalable decision simulation and latter analysis in the real economy based on foundational database.

多智能体大模型应用经济仿真消费者偏好

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