arXiv:2603.18190stat.MLcs.LG2026-03

保险数据建模前的预处理陷阱,会引发结果不可靠。

Starting Off on the Wrong Foot: Pitfalls in Data Preparation

  • 用支持点方法保证数据分割分布一致,避免偏差。
  • 新方法使模型更稳定,计算资源需求降低40%以上。
  • 适合金融、保险等高风险领域建模从业者使用。

在真实世界保险数据建模中,传统数据准备方法如随机划分训练测试集,在高度不平衡的损失数据上常导致结果不可靠且不稳定。本文提出一种新型数据准备框架,融合支持点(support points)实现代表性数据分割以确保分区间分布一致性,以及使用Chatterjee相关系数进行非参数特征筛选,捕捉特征相关性结构。该框架还集成缺失值处理,并嵌入自研的InsurAutoML管道。通过模拟数据及学术文献常用数据集评估,结果表明,采用统计严谨的数据准备方法能显著提升模型鲁棒性与可解释性,同时在多种保险损失建模任务中减少超过40%的计算资源消耗。本研究为高风险保险应用提供了关键的方法升级。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

When working with real-world insurance data, practitioners often encounter challenges during the data preparation stage that can undermine the statistical validity and reliability of downstream modeling. This study illustrates that conventional data preparation procedures such as random train-test partitioning, often yield unreliable and unstable results when confronted with highly imbalanced insurance loss data. To mitigate these limitations, we propose a novel data preparation framework leveraging two recent statistical advancements: support points for representative data splitting to ensure distributional consistency across partitions, and the Chatterjee correlation coefficient for initial, non-parametric feature screening to capture feature relevance and dependence structure. We further integrate these theoretical advances into a unified, efficient framework that also incorporates missing-data handling, and embed this framework within our custom InsurAutoML pipeline. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using both simulated datasets and datasets often cited in the academic literature. Our findings definitively demonstrate that incorporating statistically rigorous data preparation methods not only significantly enhances model robustness and interpretability but also substantially reduces computational resource requirements across diverse insurance loss modeling tasks. This work provides a crucial methodological upgrade for achieving reliable results in high stakes insurance applications.

数据预处理保险建模统计方法

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