用机器学习方法更准确地处理地震模型误差,提升震源机制反演可靠性
Improving moment tensor solutions under Earth structure uncertainty with simulation-based inference
- 通过模拟推断(SBI)建模理论误差影响,避免传统假设的偏差
- 在1%-3%地球模型误差下,高斯假设导致震源解偏倚且低估不确定性
- 适用于短周期数据和浅源事件,尤其适合火山与城市地震研究
贝叶斯反演为在全波形震源矩张量反演中纳入地球结构不确定性提供了严谨框架,但传统方法常需显著近似,可能引入偏差。本文提出一种基于模拟推断(SBI)的稳健方法,以机器学习方式经验性建模理论误差对观测的影响。该框架保持贝叶斯推理的严谨性,同时避免对不确定性函数形式的强假设。我们首先证明,在仅1%-3%的一维地球模型不确定性下,常见的高斯理论误差参数化即失效。为此,我们发展了两种基于SBI的改进方案:一种结合物理先验,另一种采用端到端深度学习。对比标准高斯方法与SBI的结果显示,高斯假设导致震源解偏倚并显著低估不确定性,尤其在短周期数据及浅源各向同性事件中问题严重。而SBI能生成更可靠、校准更优的震源机制后验分布。最后,我们将该方法成功应用于两个典型中等震级地震:1997年隆谷火山地震序列中的地震,以及2020年萨格勒布地震。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting solutions. We introduce a robust method for handling theory errors using simulation-based inference (SBI), a machine learning approach that empirically models their impact on the observations. This framework retains the rigour of Bayesian inference while avoiding restrictive assumptions about the functional form of the uncertainties. We begin by demonstrating that the common Gaussian parametrisation of theory errors breaks down under minor ($1-3 \%$) 1-D Earth model uncertainty. To address this issue, we develop two formalisms for utilising SBI to improve the quality of the moment tensor solutions: one using physics-based insights into the theory errors, and another utilising an end-to-end deep learning algorithm. We then compare the results of moment tensor inversion with the standard Gaussian approach and SBI, and demonstrate that Gaussian assumptions induce bias and significantly under-report moment tensor uncertainties. We also show that these effects are particularly problematic when inverting short period data and for shallow, isotropic events. On the other hand, SBI produces more reliable, better calibrated posteriors of the earthquake source mechanism. Finally, we successfully apply our methodology to two well studied moderate magnitude earthquakes: one from the 1997 Long Valley Caldera volcanic earthquake sequence, and the 2020 Zagreb earthquake.
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