arXiv:2603.19136cs.LGcs.AI2026-03被引 2

用自编码器和强化学习自动识别市场异常,提升股票预测在波动期的准确率。

Adaptive Regime-Aware Stock Price Prediction Using Autoencoder-Gated Dual Node Transformers with Reinforcement Learning Control

  • 通过重建误差检测异常市场状态,动态分配数据到不同预测路径。
  • 完整系统实现0.59%的平均绝对百分比误差,波动期表现优于基线模型。
  • 适合金融量化研究者,尤其关注高波动市场下的稳定预测方法。

股票市场呈现状态依赖行为,现有模型在稳定环境下优化却常在波动期失效。传统方法多对所有市场状态一视同仁或需人工标注,成本高且难以适应动态变化。本文提出一种自适应预测框架,能自动识别偏离正常状态的市场情形,并将数据路由至专用预测路径。架构包含三部分:(1) 在正常市场条件下训练的自编码器,通过重构误差识别异常状态;(2) 分别针对稳定与事件驱动型市场的双节点变换器网络;(3) 基于软演员-评论家(SAC)强化学习控制器,根据预测性能反馈动态调整异常检测阈值与路径融合权重。该控制器使系统学会自适应定义异常为标准预测失败的状态。在1982至2025年间20只标普500成分股上的实验表明,无强化学习时系统达0.68%的单日预测平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE),全系统下降至0.59%,优于基线集成节点变换器的0.80%。方向准确率达72%。系统在高波动期仍保持稳健,当基线模型误差超过1.5%时,其误差低于0.85%。消融实验显示各组件均有贡献:移除自编码器导致相对MAPE恶化36%,强化学习控制器为15%,双路径结构为7%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Stock markets exhibit regime-dependent behavior where prediction models optimized for stable conditions often fail during volatile periods. Existing approaches typically treat all market states uniformly or require manual regime labeling, which is expensive and quickly becomes stale as market dynamics evolve. This paper introduces an adaptive prediction framework that adaptively identifies deviations from normal market conditions and routes data through specialized prediction pathways. The architecture consists of three components: (1) an autoencoder trained on normal market conditions that identifies anomalous regimes through reconstruction error, (2) dual node transformer networks specialized for stable and event-driven market conditions respectively, and (3) a Soft Actor-Critic reinforcement learning controller that adaptively tunes the regime detection threshold and pathway blending weights based on prediction performance feedback. The reinforcement learning component enables the system to learn adaptive regime boundaries, defining anomalies as market states where standard prediction approaches fail. Experiments on 20 S&P 500 stocks spanning 1982 to 2025 demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves 0.68% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for one-day predictions without the reinforcement controller and 0.59% MAPE with the full adaptive system, compared to 0.80% for the baseline integrated node transformer. Directional accuracy reaches 72% with the complete framework. The system maintains robust performance during high-volatility periods, with MAPE below 0.85% when baseline models exceed 1.5%. Ablation studies confirm that each component contributes meaningfully: autoencoder routing accounts for 36% relative MAPE degradation upon removal, followed by the SAC controller at 15% and the dual-path architecture at 7%.

股票预测强化学习自编码器市场状态

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