arXiv:2603.19291cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

用可视化对比回归模型性能,一眼看清误差分布和差异。

A Visualization for Comparative Analysis of Regression Models

  • 将两个模型的残差放在二维空间中比较,直观展示误差差异。
  • 用马氏距离处理数据尺度和相关性,避免误判。
  • 用颜色图显示误差百分位分布,轻松识别异常点和密集区。

回归问题研究广泛,众多方法需调整不同超参数,选择合适模型困难,常依赖性能对比。性能通常用平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)或决定系数(R²)等指标衡量,这些指标虽能总结预测精度,但信息过度聚合,难以揭示模型间细微差异。本文提出一种新型可视化方法,解决此问题:(1)在二维空间中呈现残差,实现双模型误差的同步评估;(2)引入马氏距离,考虑数据内部相关性和尺度差异;(3)采用颜色映射表示误差的百分位分布,便于识别密集区域与离群点。该方法通过图形化展现误差分布及其相关性,提供更详尽、全面的模型性能视图,帮助用户发现传统指标难以察觉的模式,提升模型评估与比较的深度与效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As regression is a widely studied problem, many methods have been proposed to solve it, each of them often requiring setting different hyper-parameters. Therefore, selecting the proper method for a given application may be very difficult and relies on comparing their performances. Performance is usually measured using various metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), or R-squared (R${}^2$). These metrics provide a numerical summary of predictive accuracy by quantifying the difference between predicted and actual values. However, while these metrics are widely used in the literature for summarizing model performance and useful to distinguish between models performing poorly and well, they often aggregate too much information. This article addresses these limitations by introducing a novel visualization approach that highlights key aspects of regression model performance. The proposed method builds upon three main contributions: (1) considering the residuals in a 2D space, which allows for simultaneous evaluation of errors from two models, (2) leveraging the Mahalanobis distance to account for correlations and differences in scale within the data, and (3) employing a colormap to visualize the percentile-based distribution of errors, making it easier to identify dense regions and outliers. By graphically representing the distribution of errors and their correlations, this approach provides a more detailed and comprehensive view of model performance, enabling users to uncover patterns that traditional aggregate metrics may obscure. The proposed visualization method facilitates a deeper understanding of regression model performance differences and error distributions, enhancing the evaluation and comparison process.

回归分析可视化误差分析

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