arXiv:2603.19899stat.MLcs.LG2026-03

系统梳理时间序列预测中自相关建模的进展与方向。

Deep Autocorrelation Modeling for Time-Series Forecasting: Progress and Prospects

  • 提出新分类体系,涵盖模型结构与学习目标两类方法。
  • 从自相关视角整合分析近年研究演进脉络。
  • 适合关注时序建模与深度学习融合的研究者参考。

自相关是时间序列数据的核心特征,即每个观测值均与其历史值存在统计依赖。在深度时间序列预测中,自相关同时体现在输入历史序列与标签序列中,催生两大核心挑战:(1) 设计能捕捉历史序列自相关的神经网络架构;(2) 构建可建模标签序列自相关的学习目标。尽管近期研究取得进展,但对这两方面的系统性综述仍显不足。本文从自相关建模角度出发,提供深度时间序列预测的全面回顾。与现有综述不同,本文做出两项创新贡献:首先,提出新颖分类体系,涵盖近期关于模型架构与学习目标的研究——而此前综述往往忽视或弱化后者;其次,从统一的自相关中心视角,深入剖析所涉文献的动机、洞见与演进过程,呈现深度时间序列预测的发展全景。完整论文列表与资源详见 https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecasting, autocorrelation arises in both the input history and the label sequences, presenting two central research challenges: (1) designing neural architectures that model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising learning objectives that model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper provides a comprehensive review of deep time-series forecasting from the perspective of autocorrelation modeling. In contrast to existing surveys, this work makes two distinctive contributions. First, it proposes a novel taxonomy that encompasses recent literature on both model architectures and learning objectives -- whereas prior surveys neglect or inadequately discuss the latter aspect. Second, it offers a thorough analysis of the motivations, insights, and progression of the surveyed literature from a unified, autocorrelation-centric perspective, providing a holistic overview of the evolution of deep time-series forecasting. The full list of papers and resources is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.

时间序列自相关综述深度学习

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